Iowa State Cyclones vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/08/25

It’s not the most important game in the Big 12 on Saturday, but this matchup between the Iowa State Cyclones and TCU Horned Frogs is one could decide if the latter makes the conference title game this season. And white Iowa State got off to a red-hot start, the Cyclones recent performance has been extremely concerning, along with a statistical profile that doesn’t exactly fit the billing of a top 40 team, which is how they’re rated in the betting market. Add in the fact that Iowa State is pretty banged-up, and I don’t exactly have much confidence in the Cyclones to keep this one within a score on the road. 

For starters, this is a pretty good situational spot for TCU, as Sonny Dykes’ team is coming off a much-needed bye week to rest and get a bit healthier following a difficult stretch of 7 consecutive games, most of which came in Big 12 play. Now, you’re getting one of the best offensive minds in the Big 12 in a must-win spot against a pretty beleaguered Iowa State team that has dropped 4 straight games following a 5-0 start to the season. Regression has clearly hit Matt Campbell’s team, particularly on defense, where the Cyclones are now sitting at 70th in success rate allowed and 81st in 3rd and 4th down success rate per CFB-Graphs. That doesn’t bode well against a TCU offense that is a top 20 unit in 3rd and 4th down success rate, quality drives created and points per drive. Josh Hoover is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and he’s been plying mistake-free football over the last few weeks for the Horned Frogs. Hoover shouldn’t have to score 40 points to cover this number, especially with the TCU defense grading out very well against the run (13th in EPA per rush, 18th in rushing success rate allowed) and with Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht currently in the midst of his worst run of form of the season. Ultimately, I’ll lay the points with the better team at home in this Big 12 clash. 

Iowa State vs TCU prediction: TCU -5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5

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