James Madison Dukes vs Oregon Ducks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/20/25

The final game of the opening round of the College Football Playoff will commence on Saturday evening from Autzen Stadium, as the Oregon Ducks are set to host the James Madison Dukes in a game that appears to be pretty lopsided on paper. This is the largest spread of any College Football Playoff game in this new 12-team format thus far, and all signs would traditionally point to the Ducks winning big and advancing to the quarterfinals in a few weeks. In all honesty, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Dan Lanning’s team controlled this game from the opening kick and won by 17-20 points. However, even when pricing in an extra point or two for the atmosphere at Autzen Stadium at night in what should be one of the best Oregon crowds in recent memory, I just cant get to this number now that it’s currently sitting above 3 touchdowns.

This is a very difficult game to handicap given the impending coaching turnover on both sides, but I have massive respect for this James Madison coaching staff, and they should have their team ready to play in a game where the Dukes have nothing to lose and are playing with a bit of house money. In its only game against a Power 4 opponent on the road this season, James Madison was tied with Louisville in the 4th quarter and that was long before the Dukes were a finished product on offense. In fact, since Alonza Barnett III became the full-time quarterback, this has been a well-oiled machine (18th in success rate, 28th in EPA per play), albeit an offense that hasn’t faced a defense like what they’ll see against Oregon. Where JMU is pretty underrated nationally is on defense, as the Dukes are tops in the nation in success rate allowed, to go along with top 10 marks in EPA per play and points per drive allowed. They’ll certainly have their work cut out for them against an excellent Oregon offense, but the Ducks are still dealing with a number of injuries heading into this game and it’s not a guarantee that Will Stein’s offense will be at full strength, to say nothing of the focus concerns I have with the Ducks given both of their coordinators have already accepted other Power 4 head coaching jobs. Given the massive spread at play here, the backdoor could be wide open in the fourth quarter, and it’s not a guarantee that Oregon is just going to show up and win by 4 touchdowns on Saturday.  

James Madison vs Oregon prediction: James Madison +21.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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