Louisville Cardinals vs Miami Hurricanes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 10/17/25

Following a mutual bye week, the Louisville Cardinals will hit the road for Coral Gables for a primetime, Friday night meeting with the Miami Hurricanes. The ‘Cards fell to the Virginia Cavaliers in overtime 30-27 last time out, despite holding the ‘Hoos to just 237 total yards, 2.8 yards per carry and 6/15 on third downs. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes had their way with their in-state rival Florida State. The scoreboard and box score may depict a close game, but Miami was up 28-3 heading into the fourth quarter before letting off the gas a bit. 

Louisville and Miami have been 2 of the best defenses in the nation over the last 5 weeks from an efficiency standpoint. Both top-16 in PPA per play outside of garbage time since Week 3, the ‘Cards and the ‘Canes are also top-10 in success rate allowed and have surrendered fewer than 3.5 points per quality drive in that span. Miami’s defense figures to be a massive step up in class for Louisville’s offense, as the Hurricanes stop-unit is in a completely different class than the likes of James Madison, Bowling Green, Pitt and Virginia. 

These are 2 top-10 teams from a turnover margin perspective, while Louisville plays at a very deliberate pace – ranking 129th in seconds per play against FBS opponents. Moreover, both teams are flagged for penalties at an above-average rate, which may cut drives short at various points of the game. This has been a high-scoring matchup in recent years, but I’m expecting a slower, more defensive-minded game than those – so I lean to the under in this Friday ACC matchup. 

Louisville vs Miami prediction: Under 53 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better. 

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