LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/08/25

It’s been a dramatic couple of weeks for LSU. Prior to their bye week, the Tigers lost for a 3rd time in 4 outings. Their most recent loss was the ugliest of them all, not only on the field, but on the sideline thanks to former head coach Brian Kelly’s antics. With a week to recoup and re-focus, the Tigers will likely put forth a very motivated effort against one of their rivals in Alabama on Saturday, but how much will that matter? 

Unlike we’ve seen in recent years, LSU has struggled on both sides of the ball. The Tigers are outside the top 80 in scoring and outside the top 90 in total offense, and while their defensive metrics are better on the season as a whole, their worst performances of the year were against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M – their 2 most recent opponents.

If the rumors are true about how toxic LSU was under Kelly’s watch, then we can probably expect LSU to look better this week than it has at any other point this season – maybe outside of Week 1. However, like I hinted at earlier, is that actually going to matter much on the field? LSU’s primary issues on the offensive end are a poor rushing attack and a sub-optimal offensive line. Will those magically improve in Kelly’s absence? I doubt it, but I suppose it’s possible. However, if they don’t, a lot of responsibility is going to fall on the arm of QB Garrett Nussmeier, which is not what the Tigers want. Alabama’s defensive strength is in its secondary, as the Tide currently sit top-12 in passing yards allowed per game, top-15 in passing touchdowns allowed, and top-20 in yards per pass attempt this season. More recently, ‘Bama ranks 7th in PPA per pass allowed since Week 6, which includes games against Tennessee, Missouri with a healthy Beau Pribula, and Vanderbilt.

On the defensive side, LSU’s play-to-play efficiency has dropped off precipitously over the last 5 weeks. The Tigers are 98th in points allowed per quality drive and 108th in PPA per play allowed in that time, and they haven’t applied much pressure to opposing quarterbacks – sitting 107th in havoc generated by their front 7 since the beginning of October. That has been a season-long issue though, as the Tigers are outside the top 60 in sacks and outside the top 100 in tackles for loss – which is music to Alabama QB Ty Simpson’s ears. He should have all day to throw behind an above-average offensive line. 

Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has been excellent following bye weeks during his tenure in Tuscaloosa. The Tide are 3-0 SU and ATS after being idle under his watch, including 2 wins over Georgia and last year’s convincing 41-13 win at LSU. That game was never really in question. This time around, I expect the Tigers to put up a strong fight early before the Tide pull away late and win yet another home game by double digits.

LSU vs Alabama prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -10 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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