LSU Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/18/25

Following a 20-10 home win over South Carolina, the LSU Tigers will head to Nashville to play the Vanderbilt Commodores, who enter this contest following a bye week. Prior to the bye, the ‘Dores dropped their first game of the season 30-14 at Alabama. They were outgained by more than 150 yards in the contest and had 2 costly red zone turnovers that may have changed the outcome – particularly on the spread if nothing else. Vandy was inside the number pretty much the entire game until Alabama RB Jam Miller punched in a touchdown to go up 17 points with as many seconds left on the clock. 

Oddsmakers have taken a massive stand on how they feel this game will go, listing the Commodores in unfamiliar territory as 2.5-point favorites at the time of writing. After they were catching double digits on the road in Tuscaloosa, it’s somewhat surprising to see the ‘Dores as favorites over this LSU defense from an analytical perspective – though it makes sense from an eye-test standpoint. Vandy has looked the part all year. LSU has not despite a 5-1 record, even in wins over Florida and South Carolina. 

Although my projections favor the Tigers by 1 point, I’m only leaning towards the ‘Dores in this one. I can’t help but think the line is a very strong indicator in this game. Furthermore, Vandy had an extra week to prepare for an LSU team that has not had a ton of success on the road under coach Brian Kelly. In fact, the Tigers have failed to win or cover in 3 straight road underdog appearances against SEC opponents, most recently at Ole Miss when a Division 2 transfer quarterback led the Rebels to 480 total yards against this highly-touted defense. Considering where the line currently sits, that isn’t exactly a good omen for LSU ahead of its trip to Nashville. For my money, Vanderbilt is every bit the offense Ole Miss currently is. Look for the ‘Dores to win this one outright. 

LSU vs Vanderbilt prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores ML (-130) at the time of publishing. Playable to -140 or -2.5 -110 on the spread.

You can bet on our LSU vs Vanderbilt pick at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has thousands of betting options available and a great new customer offer where you can get $200 in bonus bets instantly AND $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket! Click here 👈🏼 to sign up for a DraftKings account now.

There isn’t going to be a ton of pace in this game, as both LSU and Vanderbilt are outside the top 115 in seconds per play. However, I like points in Nashville on Saturday. The Commodores have one of the most potent offenses in the country heading into this contest, currently sitting 1st nationally in PPA per play and 9th in points scored per quality drive over the last 5 weeks. Outside of a game at Ole Miss, LSU hasn’t seen an offense anywhere near Vanderbilt’s efficiency level, which is worth noting given the fact that the Tigers have been somewhat susceptible defensively on standard downs and against the run in recent weeks compared to the rest of their defensive metrics. That may be an issue in a matchup with a Commodores offense that is 1st nationally in PPA per rush and 4th in standard downs PPA since Week 3. 

For as good as Vanderbilt is offensively, the ‘Dores leave a bit to be desired on the defensive side of the field. They are 98th in PPA per play allowed over the last 5 weeks, and they’ve been vulnerable against the pass. In fact, Vandy is 104th in passing downs PPA and 120th in PPA per pass since the middle of September, which plays right into the hands of LSU’s strengths offensively with Garrett Nussmeier under center. I see this as a 27-24 type game, so give me the over at the current number. 

LSU vs Vanderbilt prediction: Over 48.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 49.

Check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $200 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ LSU vs Vanderbilt predictions.