Miami Hurricanes vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/04/25

One of the biggest games on the college football slate this weekend features a pair of ACC rivals as the Florida State Seminoles will host the Miami Hurricanes in a battle between a pair of the top teams in the conference to this point. After years of coming close but ultimately falling outside of the College Football Playoff picture, Miami appears to be among the elite in the sport this season. Carson Beck has been excellent in his first season in South Beach and he leads a Hurricanes offense that is 20th in success rate, 16th in 3rd and 4th down success rate and 21st in EPA per dropback. Miami has one of the best offensive lines in the nation and this has allowed the Hurricanes to establish early dominance in games against inferior competition. However, that won’t be the case on Saturday against a Florida State defensive front that has plenty of talent and has shown the propensity to stop the run (18th in rushing success rate allowed). Add in what should be a raucous environment at Doak Campbell Stadium, and you have a recipe for success for a defense that is coming off a poor effort and should be extremely motivated to bounce back.

On the other side, the Florida State offense has been excellent through the first month of the campaign, and I do expect that the Seminoles will be able to score against a Miami defense that while strong in the passing game, does have middling metrics when it comes to rushing success rate allowed and points per quality drive (CFB-Graphs). This game certainly has the potential to devolve into more of a shootout, which should leave the backdoor open for the hosts, even if the Seminoles find themselves trailing for the majority of the contest. Lastly, from a situational perspective, this is a pretty good setup for Florida State. After all, Mike Norvell’s team just lost at Virginia in a spot where it felt like they were looking ahead a bit to this matchup. Coming off the field storming and getting an arch-rival at home in a game that they’ve probably had circled since the offseason, it shouldn’t be a challenge for the ‘Noles to put forth their best effort in this spot. I’ll take the points and sprinkle a bit on Florida State to win outright. 

Miami vs Florida State prediction: Florida State +4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 4. 

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Both of these defenses have not exactly covered themselves in glory to this point when stepping up in class, and this has especially shown to be the case when it comes to finishing drives, as the Hurricanes are 66th in points allowed per quality drive, while the Seminoles are 91st in that same metric. Additionally, both defenses struggle a bit against what the opponent in this game does best, with Miami sitting at 55th in EPA per rush and 49th in rushing success rate allowed, while Florida State is 75th in passing success rate allowed and 70th in Early Downs EPA. These defenses are plenty talented, but this profiles as a close game where both offenses should dictate the pace of play and ultimately decide the victor. I’ll back the over in what should be a thriller in Tallahassee.

Over 53.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.