Miami Hurricanes vs Texas A&M Aggies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 12/20/25

Kicking off Saturday’s College Football Playoff action at noon ET is one of the more exciting matchups of the first round between the Miami Hurricanes and the Texas A&M Aggies. Coincidentally, both of these teams beat Notre Dame early in the year, which ultimately is the reason why the Fighting Irish were left out. Miami finished the season 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS while Texas A&M is 11-1 SU and 5-7 ATS, but it’s worth mentioning that both teams were often double-digit favorites. In games with a spread of 7 points or less, Texas A&M is 4-2 ATS while Miami is 3-0. The only time Miami was listed as an underdog was in its Week 1 win over Notre Dame. The Hurricanes closed around +3 in that game, which is about where they sit right now ahead of their playoff road trip to College Station.

Texas A&M has an impressive resume from a win/loss perspective, but when you dig deeper into what the Aggies have done this year, you’ll see that they didn’t play very many of the top SEC teams. Given the home-field advantage, the Aggies are rightful favorites, but it feels like a couple too many points – especially when considering the turnover issues the Aggies have displayed lately. They finished the regular season outside the top 100 in turnover rate, and they average 2.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 – which ranks near the bottom of the FBS over that stretch of games. In comparison, Miami is top-25 in turnover margin this year and averages just 0.7 giveaways per game over its last 3. Taking care of the ball will be crucial in a matchup between 2 top-10 defenses in terms of havoc generated outside of garbage time this year, as both stop-units rank top-25 in sacks and tackles for loss this year. Because of that, I feel more confident in Carson Beck in this spot considering he has half the amount of turnover-worthy plays as Marcel Reed. In fact, Reed has 11 turnover-worthy plays since Week 9 alone.

Reed can negate some of his turnover woes with his ability to escape from the pocket in the face of pressure and make defenses pay with his athleticism as a runner, but Miami has been especially good against mobile quarterbacks this year. In fact, FSU’s Tommy Castellanos was the only mobile quarterback that did damage against Miami’s defense, and most of that rushing production came in the 4th quarter when the game was all but decided. 

Not only has Miami been better in the turnover department, but the Hurricanes also have one of the most efficient red-zone offenses in the country. They put points on the board on over 92% of red-zone trips, and they find the end zone over 71% of the time – which puts them top-25 in both categories. Meanwhile, the Aggies are 76th in red-zone scoring and 43rd in red-zone touchdown rate. Miami should have a solid edge here, especially considering Texas A&M’s defense is 131st in red-zone scoring while allowing opponents to put points on the board on close to 94% of red-zone trips. 

This should be an excellent battle between a couple of teams that are strong on both sides. Despite having a preseason future on the Aggies, I prefer to take the points with the Hurricanes in this matchup given their advantages when it comes to turnovers and red-zone efficiency, in addition to their ability to limit mobile quarterbacks. For what it’s worth, my projections have Texas A&M around a 2-point favorite.

Miami vs Texas A&M prediction: Miami Hurricanes +3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.

You can bet on our Miami vs Texas A&M pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!