Michigan State Spartans vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/04/25

It’s not the biggest game of the weekend in the Big Ten on paper, but Michigan State and Nebraska certainly has the feel of a matchup that could really change the trajectory of the season for either team, especially the home side. Both of these teams have a lot to prove in this matchup, as the Spartans are aiming to build on some positive momentum following a 3-1 start to the season, while the Cornhuskers are still looking to finally take a step forward in Matt Rhule’s third season as the head coach. Nebraska came up small in a big game once again when Michigan came into Lincoln and controlled most of that contest a few weeks ago, and Spartans head coach Jonathan Smith should lean on a game plan that emphasizes the running game as much as possible given Nebraska’s clear deficiencies in that department (107th in rushing success rate allowed, 81st in EPA per rush, 121st in rush rate over expected). In their two games against quality competition this season, both Cincinnati and Michigan were able to flourish on the ground, and seeing as Michigan State is a top 30 unit in EPA per rush and top 40 in Early Downs EPA, there should be a path for the Spartans to generate consistent success via the running game in this one. 

As for the Cornhuskers offense, Nebraska has been a tale of two teams to this point in the season. Dylan Raiola still doesn’t look totally comfortable in his second season at the controls of this offense, but he’s been able to shine against the likes of Akron and Houston Christian, while also delivering decent efforts against Michigan and Cincinnati. However, against the tougher opponents, there are some clear and obvious struggles with this offense, and it boils down to the run game. In fact, Nebraska is outside the top 50 in both rushing success rate and EPA per rush per CFB-Graphs, and the results certainly confirm those numbers. Michigan State’s defense is very poor against the pass, but this will likely be a more run-focused game seeing as the forecast is projecting heavier winds of around 20 miles per hour in Lincoln during the time of the game on Saturday. If Nebraska is forced into a run-first game script, grabbing the points with the underdog Spartans looks a lot more enticing than it would’ve otherwise. Look for Smith and the Spartans to come out with energy and focus in the scripted portion of the game (as is typical for Smith’s teams), and that might just be enough to keep them within the number by the time the clock hits zero. 

Michigan State vs Nebraska prediction: Michigan State +11.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.5

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