Michigan Wolverines vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/20/25

It’s not the biggest game of the weekend in the Big Ten on paper, but Michigan and Nebraska certainly has the feel of a marquee matchup that could really catapult the winner into Big Ten title game and/or potential College Football Playoff conversations, while the loser will be sent back to the drawing board en route to a slightly disappointing season. Both of these teams have a lot to prove in this matchup, as the Cornhuskers hope to finally take a noticeable step forward in Matt Rhule’s third season as the head coach, while the Wolverines are coming off a mediocre campaign in 2024 and have already experienced some adversity on the road this season. One of these teams will take a massive step forward toward achieving its goals in 2025, and I’m of the belief that the hosts will emerge victorious on Saturday. 

As I mentioned in my Big Ten preview over the summer, the insertion of 5-star true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood is a move that instantly raises the ceiling of this Michigan offense quite a bit, and it makes me more bullish on the Wolverines from a long term perspective. However, as we saw against Oklahoma a few weeks ago, Underwood is still very unproven, and I think there will be some clear growing pains this season, especially considering the caliber of defense he’ll be facing in this game. Underwood struggled mightily in his first ever road start in an extremely difficult environment, and Memorial Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the Big Ten, especially when factoring in the magnitude of this game. Michigan should look to lean on its ground game, and the Wolverines should see success against a middling Nebraska run defense. However, what the Cornhuskers do very well is defend the pass, get off the field on 3rd down and limit the scoring chances of their opponents (11th in net points per drive), all of which should limit Michigan’s success on offense in this one. 

On the other side of the ball, the Michigan defense continues to remain solid against the run, even without the likes of Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant in the middle of that defensive line. However, the Wolverines have seen a noticeable drop-off in their secondary to this point, and we saw John Mateer and Oklahoma exploit that a bit a few weeks ago. With Michigan sitting at 65th in passing success rate allowed and 82nd in 3rd down success rate (CFB-Graphs), there is a path for Dylan Raiola and a red-hot Nebraska passing attack (2nd in passing success rate, 10th in EPA per dropback) to succeed at home. The Cornhuskers have one of the more underrated skill position groups in the Big Ten, and I’m of the belief that these wideouts can consistently win against a Wolverines secondary that has a lot to prove in this spot. Ultimately, this is a game that I had Nebraska winning prior to the start of the season, and nothing I’ve seen from either side has altered that notion to this point. Look for Rhule’s team to finally get over the hump against a ranked opponent on Saturday.

Michigan vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110. 

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On paper, this has all of the makings of a typical Big Ten grinder. Despite the fact that Nebraska’s run defense is mediocre and Michigan should experience success on the ground, I’m not sold on Underwood’s ability to have success through the air against a Nebraska secondary that has been a top 20 unit in the sport. From a pace of play perspective, niether team plays particularly fast, and I’m not confident in either offense’s ability to generate consistent scoring chances that don’t come as a result of longer, more methodical drives. This is an instance where both teams start fast and the game appears to be on a higher-scoring track, before things grind to a halt for a bit in the second half. I’ll back the under on Saturday.

Michigan vs Nebraska prediction: Under 47.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 47

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