Michigan Wolverines vs USC Trojans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/11/25

The Big Ten takes center stage on Saturday night with a couple of excellent games, including this clash out west between the Michigan Wolverines and USC Trojans. This is certainly a clash of styles and while the Wolverines appear to be one of the better teams in the conference to this point, this is a great situational spot to back Lincoln Riley and a USC team that just had a bye week to rest and recuperate following a disappointing road loss to Illinois. These eastern and midwestern Big Ten teams that head to the West Coast have historically struggled over the last year and a half, and the Trojans are catching Michigan in a pretty great travel spot, with the Wolverines having just won a grinder of a game at home against Wisconsin last weekend. Needlessly to say, this will be a much stiffer test for Michigan on the road against a USC team that is eager to make a statement.

While USC is coming off a loss in its only game against a ranked opponent this season, that was an awful spot for the Trojans, as USC dealt with cross-country travel and an early start time, to go along with a number of injuries on both sides of the ball. The Trojans should be noticeably healthier in this contest, as defensive leader Kamari Ramsey is expected to play after missing the game against Illinois, while star wideout Ja’Kobi Lane should be close to full health after playing less than half of the offensive snaps two weeks ago. That should be a massive boost for a USC offense that has been an absolute machine to this point, with the Trojans sitting at 4th in success rate, 1st in EPA per play and 1st in points per drive (CFB-Graphs). The Michigan defense has been strong overall, but there are certainly concerns I have with this matchup, most notably how the unproven Wolverines secondary will handle Jayden Maiava and the USC passing attack (4th in passing success rate, 2nd in EPA per pass, 6th in Early Downs EPA). Conversely, while Bryce Underwood is undoubtedly a talent worthy of the massive hype, he hasn’t been all that effective in his 2 road starts this season. The Wolverines passing game still looks like a fairly broken operation, and I can’t see that changing too much this week against a surprisingly solid USC pass defense (18th in opponent EPA per dropback). Ultimately, this is a game that should feature plenty of fireworks, but I’ll lean on the hosts to get the job done. 

Michigan vs USC prediction: USC ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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Regardless of which team wins out in Southern California, the over is the only way I can look in this matchup. For starters, these are a couple offenses that are able to do what the opposing defense struggles with. In fact, USC currently is fourth in passing success rate and 3rd in EPA per dropback per CFB-Graphs, which should come into play against a Wolverines defense that is 49th in passing success rate allowed and 50th in 3rd and 4th down success rate. This is by far the best offense that Michigan will have played to this point, and I have serious concerns with the Wolverines secondary against this dynamic USC passing attack. Conversely, the Trojans defense has struggled mightily against the run, ranking 94th in rushing success rate allowed and 76th in 3rd and 4th down success rate allowed. Both offenses should see continued success, and it wouldn’t shock me if this game ended up in the low 60s on Saturday evening.

Over 56 available at time of publishing. Playable to 56.5