Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/04/25

The reigning champion Ohio State Buckeyes return home this week after a statement win over Washington in Seattle. The Bucks held the Huskies to fewer than 250 yards of total offense, 2 yards per rush attempt, and just 1/11 on third downs. Meanwhile, the offense was clicking. Quarterback Julian Sayin looked comfortable despite playing on the road for the first time as a starter, completing 22 of his 28 pass attempts for 208 yards and 2 touchdowns. 

Like Ohio State, Minnesota comes into this contest off a win. The Golden Gophers are 3-1 SU this season, but the level of competition they have played pales in comparison to who the Buckeyes have played collectively. For reference, I have Texas and Washington power-rated much, much higher than Cal and Rutgers, while Ohio is about 15 spots higher than Buffalo heading into this week. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s lone loss was its only road game, a 27-14 defeat at Cal – who lost 34-0 at San Diego State the following week. 

I don’t see how Minnesota scores enough to squeeze inside the number against this goliath Buckeye defense. The Golden Gophers are 72nd in yards per play against FBS teams this season, and they haven’t been able to cap their quality drives off with touchdowns consistently enough for me to trust them (97th in points per quality drive). Furthermore, Minnesota’s run game hasn’t been very reliable against FBS opponents, as shown in the advanced metrics (120th in PPA per rush). 

Despite the loss of defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and all the roster turnover after winning a national title, you could argue the Buckeyes still have the best defense in the country. Ohio State is top 10 in multiple advanced defensive metrics including yards per play, third-down conversion, PPA per play, points per quality drive, standard down PPA and passing down PPA. Moreover, the Buckeyes have not surrendered more than 9 points in any game to this point.  Offensively, Ohio State finishes its quality drives with touchdowns more often than not and has been excellent at preventing negative plays – ranking 2nd nationally in total havoc allowed. 

Under the lights at Ohio Stadium, it’s going to be tough for Minnesota to consistently move the ball and finish dives with points against the Buckeye defense. Look for Ohio State to win this one comfortably. 

Minnesota vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -23.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -24.

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Minnesota’s trip to Columbus figures to be a low-scoring affair for a couple reasons. First, the pace of this game projects to be very slow. The Golden Gophers are 113th in seconds per play despite their pass-heavy attack, while the Buckeyes are the second-slowest team in the country on a seconds-per-play basis behind a balanced offensive attack. Already, you can see why this total looks more like an NFL total than a college football total.

In addition to a well below-average pace of play, I have no confidence in Minnesota to consistently score in this contest. The Gophers do not have much of a run game to speak of, are average-at-best on a yards-per-play basis, and average closer to a field goal per quality drive than a touchdown (3.65 points per quality drive) – which is good for 97th nationally. Don’t expect those numbers to magically improve against this Ohio State defense. The Buckeyes are top 10 in multiple advanced defensive metrics and none of their opponents have reached 10 points against them. For what it’s worth, the Buckeyes haven’t surrendered more than 17 points at home since the 2022 season. I doubt Minnesota even gets to that mark in this one. 

Minnesota vs Ohio State prediction: Under 45.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 45 (-115).

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