Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Florida Gators Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/18/25

With all of the massive matchups in store for us on Saturday, one of the more under the radar games comes in Gainesville, where the Florida Gators will host the Mississippi State Bulldogs in a clash of SEC hopefuls that are looking to shake up the conference. However, while the hosts have been receiving a ton of market support in recent weeks, I’m all over the underdogs in the Swamp on Saturday.

After looking like it had finally fixed its issues on offense, Florida is coming off a convincing loss to Texas A&M that is sure to send Billy Napier and company back to the drawing board after a very successful first 2 drives were essentially the only points the Gators generated in that game. DJ Lagway does have his top receiver in Dallas Wilson back from an extended absence, but the passing game still struggled to generate any sort of success or explosiveness, as it has all season long. The Gators are just 84th in passing success rate and 70th in EPA per dropback, which doesn’t give them a favorable matchup against a Mississippi State defense that has surprisingly been a top 45 unit against the pass to this point, and ranks 38th in points per drive allowed. It’s not as if being at home will help Florida all that much, with the Gators having already lost to South Florida in the Swamp back on September 6. And while this defense has been rock solid for most of the year, this unit is a tad overrated in the market compared to some of the metrics (56th in EPA per dropback).

On the other side, Mississippi State has been one of the surprise stories in the SEC and the Bulldogs are coming off a game against Tennessee in which they really could’ve — and probably should’ve — won a game in which they were underdogs of over a touchdown, but not a full 10 points. With that in mind, this number feels a bit egregious, especially since the Bulldogs offense is a veteran group that tops in the nation in rushing success rate, while sitting at 22nd nationally in success rate per CFB-Graphs. The Florida defense is one that has the ability to slow down any team, but it remains to see if the Gators will take the early lead, or will Jeff Lebby’s group be the one to bring the energy and punch Florida in the mouth early on. My money is on the latter, so let’s take the ‘dog with the points.

Mississippi State vs Florida prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs +10 available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.

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