Missouri Tigers vs Oklahoma Sooners Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/22/25

The Oklahoma Sooners earned their biggest win of the season on Saturday when they went into Tuscaloosa and beat the Alabama Crimson Tide 23-21. The Sooners benefited from 3 Alabama turnovers and led for a majority of the game, although they gained just 212 total yards compared to Alabama’s 406, converted just 3 of 13 third downs, and averaged only 2.6 yards per rush attempt. Meanwhile, after losing 3 of their last 4, the Missouri Tigers took care of business at home against Mississippi State 49-27. Like Oklahoma, they forced 3 turnovers and out-gained the Bulldogs while holding them to just 2.1 yards per rush. This is just the 2nd time these teams will meet since Missouri left for the SEC back in 2012, as the Tigers won last year at home 30-23. 

For my money, this is the biggest letdown spot on the card, and I believe Missouri is being undervalued – even if Beau Pribula won’t be back just yet for the Tigers. It comes down to the defensive side of the ball, where the Tigers are underrated. They are top-15 in both yards per play and third-down conversion rate allowed on the season as a whole, and they also rank top-15 in both havoc generated and PPA per pass outside of garbage time since Week 8. Oklahoma hasn’t exactly been the most consistent offense this season, ranking 64th in scoring, 98th in total offense, and 98th in yards per play. 

Given the potential letdown spot and Oklahoma’s offensive concerns, I’m going to avoid laying over a touchdown with the Sooners. In fact, I’d much rather take the points with what I feel is a slightly undervalued defense – especially in a potentially low-scoring game.

Missouri vs Oklahoma prediction: Missouri Tigers +7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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