Missouri Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/25/25

The Missouri Tigers recovered from their loss against Alabama with a 23-17 overtime win at Auburn last week, despite being outgained by the navy-and-orange Tigers and averaging just 2.1 yards per carry. Following the win, Mizzou will head to Nashville to play the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday in front of the ESPN College GameDay crew. On the other sideline, the ‘Dores also bounced back from a loss to Alabama with a 31-24 win over LSU in which Vandy controlled most of the game despite the close score line. The Commodores outgained LSU 399-325 and averaged 5.3 yards per carry in the contest, which was turnover-free on both sides. Missouri has beaten Vanderbilt 5 times in a row and 8 of the last 10, though the Commodores made things interesting in Columbia last year in what was a 3-point win in overtime.

Missouri has not been as dominant against SEC competition as it was against non-conference foes early in the season. The Tigers needed an 11-point 4th quarter to beat South Carolina by 9, went 1/11 on third down at home against Alabama and were outgained by Auburn’s anemic offense. Now, they hit the road again to play one of the most dangerous offenses in the country, led by quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia has been one of the best signal-callers in the sport this season, sitting 6th nationally in PFF passing grade among 156 qualified quarterbacks. Furthermore, his big-time throw rate is top-10 nationally, while his completion percentage is top-12 and his pressure-to-sack rate is top-15. Any way you slice it, Pavia has been great this season, paving the way for an elite Vanderbilt offense by the numbers. The ‘Dores are top-5 in yards per play and third-down conversions, while boasting top-7 marks in almost every key advanced offensive metric including PPA per play, success rate, points per quality drive and havoc allowed over the last 5 weeks.

My numbers have largely undervalued Vanderbilt against power-conference opponents this season, and it’s happening again this week. Last week, LSU was a “value play,” but we went against the numbers and won with the Commodores. This week, my numbers show Missouri as the “value” pick at +3. However, just like last week, I can’t get there with the Tigers despite my projections showing value on the visitors. Vanderbilt is just too good offensively, and it’s going to be hard for the Tigers to keep pace if they can’t efficiently pass the ball. For reference, Missouri is 76th in passing downs PPA and 94th in PPA per pass since Week 4. In fact, their efficiency as a whole has regressed since stepping up in level of competition, ranking 72nd in PPA per play outside of garbage over the last 5 weeks. On the other side of the ball, the Tigers are 70th in points allowed per quality drive and 58th in passing downs PPA over that same span of time. 

With a better quarterback, better offense and home-field advantage, look for Vanderbilt to overpower a Missouri team playing their 2nd road game in as many weeks. ‘Dores win outright and keep on rolling.

Missouri vs Vanderbilt prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores ML (-135) at the time of publishing. Playable to -150.

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Vanderbilt has one of, if not the best offense in the country right now, and its defense has been spotty at times throughout the season. However, I’m not running to the window to bet an over in this game, as Missouri and Vanderbilt play at below-average tempo and feature their talented running backs often. In fact, Vanderbilt has been one of the slowest offenses in the country this year, sitting 128th in seconds per play against FBS opponents. Meanwhile, Missouri is 63rd in that metric.

Vanderbilt’s best defensive attribute is how it performs against the run. The ‘Dores defense is 12th nationally in rushing yards per game, 27th in yards per attempt, and 5th in total rushing touchdowns. Going one step further, the ‘Dores are top-45 in PPA per rush and 9th nationally in explosiveness per rush outside of garbage time since Week 4. Their success against the run should be enough to at least limit Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy and force Missouri to pass more, which is not Beau Pribula’s strength as Missouri’s quarterback. For reference, Pribula has the 2nd-most interceptions in the SEC, including 4 over the last 2 weeks, and has the 2nd-fewest big-time throws in the conference. Look for this game to be heavily predicated on the run, which should keep the clock moving and suppress scoring just enough to stay under this number.

Missouri vs Vanderbilt prediction: Under 52.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 52.

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