North Texas Mean Green vs Tulane Green Wave Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 12/05/25

Arguably the most consequential game of the weekend comes in New Orleans, where the AAC title game will take place on Friday between North Texas and Tulane. With both teams currently ranked ahead of James Madison in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, this game essentially functions as a play-in game for the right to claim the Group of 5 slot in the playoff. Both teams are currently in the midst of excellent seasons, and these are a couple of offenses that should see success in this one, as evident by the sky-high total. However, even though Tulane is going to be an attractive home underdog for many, I can only look toward North Texas as my preferred side on Friday. 

This is a difficult game to handicap given that both teams have coaches that are leaving each program for Power 4 jobs after the season. Setting that fact aside, Tulane is not a team that I’ve been overly impressed with in big spots this season, even as the Green Wave have overachieved compared to preseason expectations. Theoretically, Tulane should be able to score on this North Texas defense, but the Mean Green have a strong pass defense and the Green Wave are just 86th in rushing success rate, which is how you can have success against North Texas. On the other side, the Tulane defense is certainly not the strength of the team, and the Green Wave will have a difficult task on their hands against Drew Mestemaker (29 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions this season) and a Mean Green offense that is elite in all areas. In fact, North Texas is a top 5 unit in success rate, EPA per play, early downs EPA, quality drives created and points per drive. This is a team that can beat you on the ground and through the air, which bodes well for a matchup against a Tulane team has not fared well when stepping up in class against quality offenses this season, as we saw against the likes of Ole Miss and UTSA. And even in a win over Memphis last month, Tulane’s below average pass defense (97th in passing success rate allowed, 86th in 3rd down success rate allowed) struggled to slow down the Tigers, to the tune of 368 passing yards allowed. With that in mind, as long as Mestemaker plays a fairly clean game, there should be plenty of avenues for North Texas to put up plenty of points and force Tulane’s offense to play from behind and consistently score to keep up — a role that the Green Wave have struggled with this season. I’ll back the visitors to outscore the hosts and win the AAC, capping off a storybook season in the process. 

North Texas vs Tulane prediction: North Texas ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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