Oklahoma Sooners vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/15/25

The Oklahoma Sooners earned a massive victory at Tennessee in Week 10, and then were able to enjoy the fruits of their labor during a bye week ahead of Saturday’s trip to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Tide have been very strong at home this year, winning every game by double digits – including last week’s 20-9 win over LSU. Furthermore, they may be playing with a little bit of revenge on their minds, as their Week 13 loss to the Sooners last year is likely what kept the Tide out of the College Football Playoff. 

I’m siding with the home favorite for a few reasons aside from the revenge angle. First, Alabama has a significant advantage when it comes to turnover margin and penalties. The Tide play much cleaner than the Sooners, sitting 4th nationally in turnover margin and 33rd in penalties per game against FBS opponents this season – compared to Oklahoma’s rankings 98th and 103rd, respectively. Second, Alabama’s defense has been rock-solid at home, as the Tide have yet to allow anyone to surpass 20 points on their home turf. While I realize the Tide have struggled against mobile quarterbacks for the last couple of years, I believe the Sooners will need more than just John Mateer’s legs. Does Oklahoma have a strong enough passing game to stay within the number, much less win the game? Considering the Sooners are 125th in passing downs PPA and 120th in PPA per pass since Week 7, maybe not. 

Finally, Alabama’s passing attack should thrive here, as the Tide are strong enough up front to neutralize Oklahoma’s relentless pressure and blitz packages. Not to mention, the Sooners have already shown some vulnerabilities against strong passing offenses recently. In fact, Oklahoma is 126th on passing downs PPA allowed over the last 5 weeks, which means the Sooners could have trouble getting off the field on third downs against an Alabama offense that is top-12 nationally in third-down conversion rate this season. Look for the Tide to ultimately win this game by at least a touchdown.

Oklahoma vs Alabama prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -5.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.

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