Oklahoma Sooners vs Tennessee Volunteers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/01/25

After starting the year 5-0, the Oklahoma Sooners have lost 2 of their last 3 and now head to Knoxville to play the Tennessee Volunteers under the lights at Neyland Stadium. Meanwhile, the Vols bounced back from their loss at Alabama with a convincing win at Kentucky last week, scoring 56 points and amassing 504 yards in the 22-point win. These teams played each other last year in Norman and Tennessee emerged victorious 25-15, but don’t let the score fool you – the Vols led 22-3 going into the 4th quarter before a couple of key penalties led to extended Oklahoma scoring drives when the outcome was all but decided. 

Oklahoma boasts some elite defensive numbers, as the Sooners are 1st nationally in yards per play, 5th in scoring, 6th in total defense and 10th in third-down conversion rate allowed on the season as a whole. Since Week 5, they are 1st nationally in havoc generated, 2nd in standard downs PPA, 13th in PPA per play and 28th in points allowed per quality drive. However, you could make a very valid argument that the Sooners hadn’t played a complete and competent offense until they hosted Ole Miss last week. In fact, Ole Miss is the only top-50 offense (from a PPA per play perspective) Oklahoma has played to this point aside from Michigan, who sits at 49th on the season as a whole – but has dropped down the rankings against conference opponents. Interestingly enough, the Rebels were the first team to surpass 400 yards and score more than 24 points against Oklahoma’s defense. Go figure. 

Oklahoma’s defense will endure another tough test this weekend against a Tennessee offense that, for all intents and purposes, is just as good, if not better than Ole Miss. To make matters worse for the Sooners, this game will be on the road in one of the loudest and most hostile venues to play in the country, let alone the conference. Over the last 5 weeks, the Vols averaged 36 points per game while ranking 17th in PPA per play and 22nd in points scored per quality drive. Moreover, the Vols have the 3rd-most red zone trips and red-zone touchdowns nationally this season, which may be an issue for Oklahoma considering the Sooners let Ole Miss score every time it reached the red zone last week.

If we can’t trust Oklahoma defensively here, how are we to trust them offensively? The Sooners have struggled to run the ball with any consistency all year, and ever since coming back from surgery, QB John Mateer has failed to return to his early-season form. In fact, the Sooners are 125th in passing downs PPA over their last 4 games, which doesn’t exactly pair well with an inefficient rushing attack. None of this bodes well for the Sooners, especially when you consider the expected atmosphere in Knoxville on Saturday night. While this will be the Sooners’ 3rd true road game of the season, it will be their first at night against a capable offense (Temple and South Carolina were first 2 road games, both at noon ET). Look for the Vols to feed off the raucous Neyland atmosphere in a win and cover.

Oklahoma vs Tennessee prediction: Tennessee Volunteers -3 (-108) at the time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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While I don’t see Oklahoma scoring enough to win or cover, I do see the Sooners contributing enough to push this game over the total – especially if Tennessee is going to continue its run of averaging north of 35 points per game. After all, John Mateer came into the season as a Heisman darling in the betting markets due to his ability to push the ball down the field and create with his legs. Since coming back from injury, we haven’t quite seen the playmaker we saw earlier in the season, but as he becomes further and further removed from surgery on his throwing hand, he should continue to look healthier and healthier. He certainly still possesses the ability to take advantage of a Tennessee defense that is 65th in passing downs PPA and 83rd in PPA per pass since Week 5, while just surrendering 34 points last week to a Kentucky offense that is 121st in PPA per play this season.

I expect the Volunteers to shine offensively in this game, against a defense that wasn’t seriously tested against an offense of Tennessee’s caliber until just last week. Interestingly enough, the Sooners surrendered season-highs in points and yards in that game despite being at home. Playing at home in Neyland Stadium, where Tennessee reached at least 34 points in every game, look for the Vols to spearhead the scoring efforts to push this game over the total.

Oklahoma vs Tennessee prediction: Over 56.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 57.5. 

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