Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/11/25

The Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns meet at the Cotton Bowl on Saturday in one of college football’s biggest rivalries known as the Red River Shootout. The Sooners come into this contest with a perfect 5-0 record, having most recently drubbed Kent State 44-0 on the heels of a bye week. Effectively, the Sooners have had 2 weeks off to prepare for Texas. Meanwhile, the Longhorns come into this game off a loss with a 3-2 record. Arch manning and the Longhorn offense was lifeless at times in the Swamp, as the rushing attack averaged just 2 yards per carry on 56 attempts while Manning completed just 53.3% of his passes with 2 interceptions and 4 turnover-worthy plays. He now leads the SEC with 10 turnover-worthy plays, just ahead of Taylen Green’s 9 and DJ Lagway’s 8. 

This line opened around 3 and has been bet down to the current number of 1.5 despite the fact that John Mateer remains out and is unlikely to play after surgery on his throwing hand a few weeks ago (though it’s rumored that he is pushing to play). In place of him, Michael Hawkins Jr. is expected to make the start after throwing 3 touchdowns and rushing for 33 yards and another score on 9 carries against Kent State before being pulled in the 4th quarter. Once it is confirmed that Mateer won’t play in this game, I expect the line to move back toward the opener of 3. However, regardless of whether Mateer plays or not, I’m taking the Sooners outright in this one.

Texas has reached desperation mode, which Florida proved is difficult to bet against in college football. However, I’m not buying Texas’ offense until the Longhorns prove they can move the ball consistently against top-tier defenses. Despite having 3 cupcakes on their schedule, the Longhorns are 93rd in points per quality drive, 98th in PPA per play, 103rd in third-down conversion rate and 129th in penalties per game. That’s not going to get it done against an Oklahoma defense that is top 5 nationally in yards per play, third-down conversion, PPA per play, points allowed per quality drive and havoc generated outside of garbage time. In Week 2, this OU defense held Michigan to just 288 total yards and 3/14 on third downs. A few weeks later, the Sooners held Auburn to 287 yards and 3/15 on third down. The Tigers rushed for just 1.9 yards per carry in that contest. 

Expect Oklahoma’s offense to be limited with Hawkins under center rather than Mateer, but the Sooners have plenty on the defensive side to force turnovers and give their offense favorable field position at least once in this game. Without much faith in Texas’ offense, I’m siding with the Sooners to win outright. 

Oklahoma vs Texas prediction: Oklahoma Sooners ML (+100) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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As I hinted in the spread write-up, I expect this to be a low-scoring game, unlikely to be played at a fast pace. Texas ranks 77th in seconds per play, and while Oklahoma is top 30 in this metric, the Sooners will operate with a backup quarterback in this one. Expect Ben Arbuckle to be a bit more deliberate with his play-calling and desired tempo with Michael Hawkins Jr. under center rather than John Mateer, especially against a Texas defense that is top 15 in PPA per play, yards per play and third-down conversion rate, in addition to 33rd in points allowed per quality drive and 41st in havoc generated.

Texas’ offensive inefficiencies are also a driving force in me liking the under in this heated rivalry matchup. Arch Manning and the Longhorns have struggled against power conference competition and will now have to line up opposite of an Oklahoma defense that is 1st nationally in yards per play, 2nd in third-down conversion rate, 4th in PPA per play, 4th in havoc generated and 5th in points allowed per quality drive. For good measure, the Sooners are also 3rd nationally in both passing downs PPA and pass play PPA, so how high is Manning’s ceiling exactly in this matchup? Actually, the better question probably is: how low is Manning’s floor against Oklahoma? My answer: very. If Mateer ends up playing, expect the total to tick up. However, expecting Hawkins under center, I like the Red River Shootout to be a low-scoring affair.

Oklahoma vs Texas prediction: Under 43.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 43.

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