Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 10/11/25

Updated with John Mateer injury news on Friday morning

The Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns meet at the Cotton Bowl on Saturday in one of college football’s biggest rivalries known as the Red River Shootout. The Sooners come into this contest with a perfect 5-0 record, having most recently drubbed Kent State 44-0 on the heels of a bye week. Effectively, the Sooners have had 2 weeks off to prepare for Texas. Meanwhile, the Longhorns come into this game off a loss with a 3-2 record. Arch manning and the Longhorn offense was lifeless at times in the Swamp, as the rushing attack averaged just 2 yards per carry on 56 attempts while Manning completed just 53.3% of his passes with 2 interceptions and 4 turnover-worthy plays. He now leads the SEC with 10 turnover-worthy plays, just ahead of Taylen Green’s 9 and DJ Lagway’s 8. 

When the SEC injury reports came out on Thursday night, Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer was listed as “probable” for Saturday’s game against Texas. It seemed the market expected this, as the number moved quickly off of the +3 opener, all the way down to +1 at some sportsbooks. Now that Mateer officially expects to play, the Sooners are giving a point to the Longhorns — which is exactly where I project this spread.  I still recommend a play on Oklahoma ML in this game, as the price is not too rich at the moment considering Mateer will be under center.

Texas has reached desperation mode, which Florida proved is difficult to bet against in college football. However, I’m not buying Texas’ offense until the Longhorns prove they can move the ball consistently against top-tier defenses. Despite having 3 cupcakes on their schedule, the Longhorns are 93rd in points per quality drive, 98th in PPA per play, 103rd in third-down conversion rate and 129th in penalties per game. That’s not going to get it done against an Oklahoma defense that is top 5 nationally in yards per play, third-down conversion, PPA per play, points allowed per quality drive and havoc generated outside of garbage time. In Week 2, this OU defense held Michigan to just 288 total yards and 3/14 on third downs. A few weeks later, the Sooners held Auburn to 287 yards and 3/15 on third down. The Tigers rushed for just 1.9 yards per carry in that contest. Without much faith in Texas’ offense, I’m siding with the Sooners to win outright. 

Oklahoma vs Texas prediction: Oklahoma Sooners ML (+100) at the time of original publication. Playable to -120. 

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As I hinted in the spread write-up, I expect this to be a low-scoring game, unlikely to be played at a fast pace. Texas ranks 77th in seconds per play, and while Oklahoma is top 30 in this metric, the Sooners will operate with what I suspect could be a limited passer in quarterback John Mateer. Mateer’s rehab from a surgery on his throwing hand was apparently ahead of schedule, as he was listed as “probable” on Thursday night’s SEC injury report. Having him back certainly improves the Oklahoma passing attack, but I’m not sold on his hand being quite 100% — which may limit him as a downfield passer. It’s a tough matchup after all as, despite Texas’ struggles against power conference opponents, its defense is one of the strongest in the country. For reference, the Longhorns are top 15 in PPA per play, yards per play and third-down conversion rate, in addition to 33rd in points allowed per quality drive and 41st in havoc generated.

Texas’ offensive inefficiencies are also a driving force in me liking the under in this heated rivalry matchup. Arch Manning and the Longhorns have struggled against power conference competition and will now have to line up opposite of an Oklahoma defense that is 1st nationally in yards per play, 2nd in third-down conversion rate, 4th in PPA per play, 4th in havoc generated and 5th in points allowed per quality drive. For good measure, the Sooners are also 3rd nationally in both passing downs PPA and pass play PPA, so how high is Manning’s ceiling exactly in this matchup? Actually, the better question probably is: how low is Manning’s floor against Oklahoma? My answer: very. Give me the under in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Oklahoma vs Texas prediction: Under 44.5 (-105) available following Mateer injury update. Playable to 43.

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