Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Oregon Ducks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/06/25

It’s not often that I’m looking to lay four touchdowns with a team, particularly early in the season. However, this is an instance where I feel like we have an obvious mismatch on our hands, as the Oklahoma State Cowboys are set to take on the Oregon Ducks on Saturday at Autzen Stadium.

Much has been made of the fact that the Cowboys are essentially a brand new team after head coach Mike Gundy went into the transfer portal and brought in an entire new roster worth of players, retaining just a small handful of pieces from last year’s operation. The results were likely not going to be all that good early on, and that was certainly the case a week ago as Oklahoma State struggled to put away UT Martin, an FCS foe that isn’t exactly a great program these days. Now, Oklahoma State’s meager offense (98th in quality drive rate, 80th in points per drive, 85th in rushing success rate) will have to go into one of the toughest places to play in the country with its backup quarterback getting the start, as previous starter Hoss Henjy suffered an injury in last week’s win. That doesn’t bode well for the visitors against a Ducks defense that has a ton of talent in the secondary and lived in the backfield against Montana State a week ago.

As for the Oregon offense, it was nearly a picture-perfect debut for Dante Moore and company in Week 1. In fact, there were more than half a dozen Ducks players that finished with touchdowns in what was a complete and total beatdown of a proud and historically successful Montana State program. It’s also not a guarantee that Oklahoma State’s defense represents a step-up in class, as the Cowboys are outside the top 100 in passing success rate allowed and 122nd in net points per drive (CFB-Graphs). I have a hard time believing that a roster this new and inexperienced at this level is going to make plays in the open field against the likes of Dakorien Moore or Kenyon Sadiq. There’s also the added insult of injury of Mike Gundy’s recent comments, which surely fired up the Oregon players and coaching staff behind closed doors. All things considered, the Ducks should blow the doors off Oklahoma State at Autzen.

Oklahoma State vs Oregon prediction: Oregon -28 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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