Oregon Ducks vs Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/08/25

One of the most important games in the nation comes in the Big Ten on Saturday, when the Iowa Hawkeyes host the Oregon Ducks in a game that effectively functions as an elimination game for the home team. Oregon has been cruising for most of the season, but the Ducks have certainly struggled when stepping up in class in a couple of spots. In fact, while they have a couple of impressive wins on paper, one could argue that a win at Penn State is not nearly as impressive for Dan Lanning’s group as it looked a month ago. The Ducks have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, but most of it is still fairly young, and I’m still of the belief that next year is when Oregon will stake itself as a true national title contender. Throw in the fact that Dante Moore has been pretty pedestrian in recent weeks and the fact that the forecast is calling for wet conditions on Saturday, and we have all the ingredients for a game that might be a bit too close for comfort for this Oregon team.

Not only has Kinnick Stadium been a house of horrors for highly-ranked opponents over the past couple of decades, this Iowa defense is going to be one of the best units that Oregon will have faced all season, as the Hawkeyes rank inside the top 10 in quality drive rate, EPA per dropback and 3rd and 4th down success rate (CFB-Graphs). Earlier this season, Phil Parker’s defense held the mighty Indiana offense to just over 300 yards of offense, so even though the Ducks have an excellent group of skill position talent, there is a proof of concept for this Iowa unit to at least offer some resistance against a pretty inexperienced quarterback that is playing in an extremely hostile environment. On the other side of the ball, Iowa appears to have finally turned the corner offensively after putting up a combined 103 points over its last 3 contests. With an excellent ground game to make things easier on veteran quarterback Mark Gronowski, this unit should scratch across at least a couple of touchdowns against a Ducks defense that can be vulnerable against the run. As long as the Hawkeyes can establish a bit of success on the ground and avoid any costly turnovers, this should be another Big Ten game decided by one possession in Iowa City. 

Oregon vs Iowa prediction: Iowa +7 available at time of publishing. Playable to Iowa +6. 

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