Oregon Ducks vs Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/27/25

The headline game of this loaded college football Week 5 slate on Saturday comes in the Big Ten, where the Penn State Nittany Lions are set to host the Oregon Ducks in a rematch of last season’s Big Ten title game. There is a ton on the line for both teams in this matchup, as neither side has really been tested at all to this point. The winner will likely have the inside track to an appearance in the Big Ten title game, and potentially could be the National Championship favorite in the betting market going forward. Who will prevail in a White Out night in Happy Valley? It’s almost time to find out.

It’s been nearly a picture-perfect start to the campaign for Dante Moore (75% completion, 10 touchdowns) and the Oregon offense to this point. In fact, there have been nearly a dozen Ducks players that have registered touchdowns over the first 4 weeks as Oregon has handed out some beatdowns against the likes of Montana State, Oklahoma State and Oregon State. Dakorien Moore looks like one of the best receivers in the country in his true freshman season, while Malik Benson has been a breath of fresh air at the #2 wideout spot on the outside. Oregon’s running back room is deep and talented, and the Ducks have been running the ball very effectively through the first month of the campaign. However, that success could certainly come to a screeching halt in this one against a Penn State defensive front that ranks 2nd nationally in EPA per rush, to go along with top 5 marks in quality drive rate and Early Downs EPA, per CFB-Graphs.

I certainly have faith in Moore’s upside from a long term perspective, but I also have to respect the environment in this game, especially since this will be the most difficult atmosphere the Oregon quarterback has faced in his young career by far. Jim Knowles has this Nittany Lions defense humming through the first 3 games and considering that the former Ohio State defensive coordinator has plenty of experience against the Will Stein offense, I think things could get a bit dicey for the Oregon offensive line against these pass rushers.

As for the hosts, it hasn’t exactly been a season to write home about for the Penn State offense thus far. However, one could certainly argue that Andy Kotelnicki and this offense have been saving a lot for this game, especially with the Nittany Lions essentially playing a handful of preseason football games to get their legs under them. Much like Michigan in 2023 and Ohio State a season ago, this is an instance where I think Penn State going through the motions in the nonconference portion of its schedule has given us a bit of value on the Nittany Lions now that league play has arrived. Now, we’ll finally see what this new-look passing offense has in store for us, as the wide receiver trio of Kyron Hudson, Trevor Pena, and Devonte Ross should be fully unleashed against a supremely talented, but very young and inexperienced Oregon secondary.

We know that Drew Allar provides this offense with a very high floor, even if his ceiling is probably lower than what some were expecting at the start of his collegiate career. Allar has been very good historically at home when it comes to managing the game and not turning the ball over, and he’ll also have the aide of the best running back tandem in the nation in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen to lead the way on the ground. Much like we saw in last season’s matchup, the Penn State ground game should feast on a middling Oregon run defense, particularly up the middle. If the Nittany Lions are able to control the game flow and the clock via their ground attack, I have a hard time seeing a path for Oregon to win at Beaver Stadium under the lights. I’ll take Penn State to make a statement in what is a massive spot for James Franklin and his team.

Oregon vs Penn State prediction: Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-117) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or to Penn State -3.5 (-105). 

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Regardless of which team wins this game, the under is one of my favorite plays on the board from a totals perspective this week. Both defenses have been very stout to this point, with Oregon sitting at 11th nationally in success rate allowed, 4th in Early Downs EPA and 9th in points per drive allowed. Not to be outdone, the Nittany Lions check in at 1st in points per drive allowed, 2nd in Early Downs EPA and 2nd in opponent EPA per rush. These are a couple of coordinators that are very good at their jobs and I think both coaching staffs are going to settle into the game and look to feel each other out for a few possessions before the scoring really starts in earnest. Unlike last season’s meeting on a fast track, this is one where I project both defensive lines will have their say on the effectiveness of the opposing quarterback in the downfield passing game. With that in mind, let’s take the under while it’s above the key of 51.

Oregon vs Penn State prediction: Under 52.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5