Penn State Nittany Lions vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/01/25

A matchup that was thought of as a potential game of the year is now merely an afterthought to some, as Penn State heads to Columbus to play the Ohio State Buckeyes in the midst of a 4-game losing streak this Saturday. Before the season, when James Franklin was still employed and QB Drew Allar was healthy, the Buckeyes were merely 3.5-point favorites over the Nittany Lions on the lookahead lines, but much has changed since then. Penn State dropped back-to-back games as 3-touchdown favorites and lost its head coach and quarterback in the process. Now, the Nittany Lions are fighting just to make a bowl game much less the College Football Playoff. In order to do that, they will have to win 3 of their remaining 5 games. Considering they play #1 Ohio State this week and #2 Indiana next week, notching 3 wins over the last month or so of the season isn’t exactly going to be easy.

Obviously, this is a massive jump in price considering the circumstances. My numbers show value on Penn State at this price, but I don’t trust that the numbers can adequately quantify the emotional letdown this team – once seen as one of the National Championship favorites – has endured. You could argue the talent is still there to give Ohio State a game, but I have a hard time seeing it. The Nittany Lions failed to surpass 300 total yards in consecutive games against Northwestern and Iowa, and now they have to play against arguably the best defense in the country – one that has surrendered more than 10 points just once and has allowed a total of just 12 first-half points through 7 games. 

The Nittany Lions still have defensive playmakers from a talent perspective, but I question how bought-in this team is. Maybe they will view this as their Super Bowl, but recent defensive trends suggest the Buckeyes should be able to move the ball at-will against this unit. Since Week 5, Penn State’s defense ranks 79th in both PPA per play and points allowed per quality drive. Going one step further, the Nittany Lions have been downright awful on standard downs and against the run recently, sitting 100th in standard downs PPA and 128th in PPA per rush. To make matters even worse, Penn State sits 135th (second-to-last) in havoc generated since the end of September, having forced just 2 turnovers dating back to the Oregon game – a fumble recovery against Northwestern and a fortunate interception on a pass from Iowa QB Mark Gronowski that bounced off his receiver’s hands and was not deemed a turnover-worthy play per PFF.

With OSU QB Julian Sayin budding into a star before our eyes, going up against a Penn State defense that has shown vulnerabilities and failed to force opponents into mistakes, I am inclined to ignore my projections and side with the Buckeyes – and that’s not even accounting for the other side of the ball. How is Penn State going to move the ball on this OSU defense if it can’t move the ball consistently against Northwestern or Iowa? While I admit this is a ton of points to lay, I see a comfortable Buckeye win here more than I do a competitive effort from Penn State. For what it’s worth, Ohio State is 9-1-1 ATS as a home favorite of at least 20 points against conference opponents since 2021, 4-1-1 ATS over the last 3 years.

Penn State vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -20 (-115) available at Fanatics at the time of publishing. Playable to -21 (-115).

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Accurately predicting these mid-40s totals in Ohio State games is tough. On one hand, the Buckeyes are so stout defensively; only one team has surpassed 10 points against them this season. On the other hand, this offense can light up the scoreboard and surpass 43 points alone on any given Saturday. However, for this particular matchup, I lean to the under, as I expect it to be a struggle for Penn State to score. 

Penn State’s offense has dropped off a cliff in recent weeks – understandably so – and hasn’t been able to put itself into enough scoring opportunities for me to trust it against this OSU defense. For reference, the Nittany Lions have driven past the opposing 40-yard line just 18 times outside of garbage time in 4 games since Week 5, which ranks 113th nationally around teams like Kentucky, Syracuse, and Middle Tennessee. If you think about it, that averages out to be just about 1 scoring opportunity per quarter since Week 5 against a group of teams that includes UCLA, Northwestern and Iowa. 

Meanwhile, Ohio State has allowed just 11 opposing, non-garbage-time drives to pass its own 40-yard line in 4 games since Week 5 – good for a tie at 2nd nationally just behind Toledo. When opponents are fortunate enough to make it into scoring range against this defense, they have trouble even coming away with a field goal – as the Buckeyes have surrendered just 2.36 points per quality drive since the end of September. Predictably, opponents also have trouble scoring from the red zone against this defense; the ‘Bucks have surrendered just 2 touchdowns on 12 opposing red-zone trips. Given all this information, it wouldn’t surprise me to see yet another team fail to surpass 10 points against the vaunted Ohio State defense. This has the feel of a 31-6 type of game, so I lean to the under here.

Penn State vs Ohio State prediction: Under 43.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 43. 

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