Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 08/23/25

After a long and eventful offseason, the 2025 college football season is finally here. And few games represent what life is like in the new world of college football than Saturday’s matchup between the Sam Houston State Bearkats and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. Both of these teams are wildly different compared to where they were a season ago, and while I typically like to target the underdog in a game with this much variance, I’m going to take a look at the total and focus on what should be a high-scoring affair given the profile of these teams.

Sam Houston State was a defense-first side in 2024, as the Bearkats were one of the better units in the Group of 5 in opponent passing success rate (37th), quality drive rate (13th) and points per drive allowed (22nd). However, the offseason brought massive changes to this program, with the Bearkats losing their head coach and both coordinators following a 9-win season. Now, former NC State assistant Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay will take over a defense that returns zero starters and lost its top 16 tacklers from a season ago. Things won’t get any easier for the Sam Houston State defense against a Western Kentucky offense that is looking to replicate the magic of Bailey Zappe and Zach Kittley from their historic 2021 campaign by bringing in quarterback Maverick McIvor (63 career touchdowns) and offensive coordinator Rick Bowie from Abilene Christian. This combination has the potential to be electric in Conference USA all season long, and McIvor and this offense should find an early groove against this brand new and unproven Sam Houston defense.

On the other side, Western Kentucky’s defense was already outside the top 100 in success rate in 2024, and the Hilltoppers are now going be without their top 12 tacklers from a season ago. In fairness, it’s not as if Western Kentucky is a program that is known for its defense, and I wouldn’t expect that to change in Week 1 against a Sam Houston offense that should be running a ton of tempo and looking to snap the ball every 20-25 seconds with new head coach Phil Longo at the controls. Given the fact that both teams have offensive play-callers who will emphasize playing with tempo and consistently taking shots downfield, the Over is the only way I can look in this matchup. Grab your popcorn and get ready for some points on Saturday.

Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky prediction: Over 61 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 62.

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