SMU Mustangs vs Missouri State Bears Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/13/25

The Missouri State Bears are playing in their first home game as an FBS program, and they’ve got a tough challenge with ACC squad SMU coming into town. The Bears had a rude awakening to the big leagues in a 60-point loss against USC, but pulled off the outright upset over Marshall last week and moved the ball extremely well in the passing game. I expect the Bears to pull out all the stops for this one, and the SMU secondary is extremely susceptible to big plays in the passing game. The Mustangs gave up 440 yards through the air last week and ranks 81st in defensive passing efficiency despite having a cupcake game against East Texas A&M in Week 1.

Now, it would take a heck of a performance from the Missouri State defense to keep up with the Mustangs, and after giving up 73 against the only Power 5 opponent of the season thus far, it’s hard to have faith in the Bears’ defense. It’s no secret that SMU can light up the scoreboard as the Mustangs have already posted 87 points in 2 games. Kevin Jennings is a big-time playmaker at quarterback and the high-flying style of offense the Mustangs run should give Missouri State fits. SMU has made a habit of getting into shootouts in recent history, and I’ll follow the trend by taking the over in this spot.

SMU vs Missouri State prediction: Over 61.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.