South Florida Bulls vs Florida Gators Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/06/25

After an electric primetime win over Boise State in Week 1, the USF Bulls head on the road to play one of their in-state big brothers in the Florida Gators. The Bulls were outgained by the Broncos on Thursday, but they forced 3 turnovers and controlled the game from the 2nd quarter on. Byrum Brown was awesome in the pocket, probably more than his stats depict, as he churned out multiple touchdown runs and a few other crucial runs that extended drives. Meanwhile, the Gators had a tune-up game against FCS Long Island University and held the Sharks to only 86 yards of total offense. 

I’m expecting points in this game. While holding Boise to 7 points looks good on paper, the Bulls were probably a bit fortunate to recover 3 fumbles either in the red zone or close to it, and benefitted from the Broncos offense going through an adjustment period without Ashton Jeanty. USF is unlikely to have those same fortunes this week against a very strong Florida offense that can seemingly roll out of bed and score 40+ points on inferior opponents in a moment’s notice. 

When USF punched up in class last year, the Bulls surrendered 42 points to Alabama and 50 points to Miami. They even gave up 45 points to Tulane. In those games, USF was gashed on the ground, and that’s something Florida should be able to replicate with ease in this matchup via running backs Jaden Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson, in addition to having a significant physical advantage in the trenches against an undersized USF defensive line. Look for Baugh and Jackson to run wild in this game, and don’t be surprised to see DJ Lagway utilize that run-game success to hit a couple of explosive passes out of play-action. Assuming Florida scores at least 40-45 points, I’m taking the over in this one.

USF vs Florida prediction: Over 54 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 56.5.

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