South Florida Bulls vs Memphis Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/25/25

Arguably the Group of 5 game of the year, the South Florida Bulls will head to Memphis to take on the Tigers at noon ET on ESPN2, though Memphis somewhat diminished the lure of this matchup when it lost last week at UAB as more than a 3-touchdown favorite. The Tigers were outgained by the Blazers 470-362, and they surrendered 5.3 yards per carry and 9.3 yards per pass. To make matters worse, Memphis starting quarterback Brendon Lewis suffered a lower body injury during the game and was seen with crutches on the sideline. He is currently day-to-day, but the market seems to think he will either be out or extremely limited – as USF is as high as a -5.5-point favorite at some sportsbooks after opening around -3.5. 

USF’s offense has been blazing-hot after the Bulls lost at Miami earlier in the season. In fact, the Bulls have scored at least 48 points in 4 straight games. Without the guarantee of a healthy Lewis, it’s hard to recommend anything other than USF even with the line move – especially after Memphis’ defensive performance last week. Since Week 4, the Tigers are 101st in PPA per play allowed and 87th in points allowed per quality drive, which doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence against a USF offense that is top 15 across the board since the middle of September and top 10 in turnover margin this season. Look for the Bulls to continue their run in an attempt to earn the Group of 5 CFP bid. 

South Florida vs Memphis prediction: South Florida Bulls -4.5 (-112) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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If Memphis starting quarterback Brendon Lewis is unable to play in this game, it may be hard for the Tigers to find the end zone enough to push this game over the total. Memphis already plays at a below-average tempo, ranking 101st in seconds per play against FBS opponents. Without Lewis, that tempo could be even slower, and the Tigers would likely lose some explosiveness in the run game – as he leads the team in carries and rushing touchdowns this season. 

USF boasts a defense that is top-15 in points allowed per quality drive, standard downs PPA and passing downs PPA since Week 4. Furthermore, the Bulls are 1st nationally in PPA per rush allowed over the last 5 weeks, which will be huge against Memphis’ running back trio of Sutton Smith, Greg Desrosiers Jr., and Frank Peasant. Taking an under in this game is certainly playing with fire, but I certainly lean that way without more clarity on Lewis’ injury situation.

South Florida vs Memphis prediction: Under 63.5 (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 63.

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