South Florida Bulls vs Navy Midshipmen Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/15/25

One of the most important games within the Group of 5 in Week 12 comes in the AAC, where the Navy Midshipmen will take on the South Florida Bulls in a matchup that could go a long way to determining which team makes the American conference title game, and potentially the College Football Playoff. The biggest question in this game revolves around the health of Navy quarterback Blake Horvath, who is the engine that makes this Drew Cronic offense so successful when he’s healthy. However, Horvath missed last week’s contest with an upper-body injury that he suffered against North Texas in Week 10 and his status is currently uncertain for this week’s game. While I do ultimately expect Horvath to play on Saturday, I’m not sold on how effective the veteran quarterback will be against a South Florida defense that is one of the better units in the Group of 5, with the Bulls currently sitting at 32nd in success rate allowed and 24th in EPA per play (CFB-Graphs). Navy’s offense has struggled when stepping up in class this season, as the Midshipmen failed to crack 20 points in each of their last 2 games against North Texas and Notre Dame, which doesn’t exactly give me much confidence in their ability to put up points this week.

On the other side, Navy’s defense has been a real problem to this point, with the Midshipmen sitting at 93rd in success rate allowed and outside the top 100 in EPA per play. Additionally, when teams do drive the ball into Navy territory, they often score touchdowns, as the Midshipmen are a whopping 128th in points per drive allowed on the season. That certainly bodes well for Byrum Brown and a USF offense that is a top 30 unit nationally in success rate, EPA per play and points per drive. Ultimately, the Midshipmen have been pretty overvalued in the market all season long, and Navy has actually failed to cover the spread in each of its last 6 games leading into this week. With that in mind, I’ll back the stronger and healthier team in a game where the true top team in the AAC will reveal itself to be the visitors. Let’s back South Florida to win by double digits on the road on Saturday.

USF vs Navy prediction: South Florida -9.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to USF -10. 

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