South Florida Bulls vs North Texas Mean Green Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 10/10/25

One of the biggest games of the weekend in terms of the College Football Playoff picture will take place on Friday, as the South Florida Bulls will take on the North Texas Mean Green in Denton, Texas. These teams appear to be in the top tier of the AAC, along with Tulane and Memphis, which makes this a massively important contest in terms of conference standings and positioning in the CFP race. And while South Florida made all of the early headlines following its wins over Boise State and Florida to open the campaign, this is a game where I’m very optimistic in the chances of the home side to make some noise on a national stage.

There’s no doubt that South Florida has been impressive to this point, as quarterback Byrum Brown has remained healthy through the first 6 weeks of the season, a stark contrast to what we saw a season ago. Additionally, the influx of talent on this roster has proven to be a real difference maker for Alex Golesh’s team, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. However, despite the fact that Brown has been able to remain healthy, the South Florida offense has been underwhelming on a down-to-down basis in recent weeks. In fact, for the season, the Bulls are just 98th in success rate, 89th in points per drive and 72nd in EPA per play. They’ll be in for a tough task against a North Texas defense that is 21st in passing success rate allowed, 25th in EPA per rush and 9th in Early Downs EPA per CFB-Graphs.

On the other side of the ball, the Mean Green are led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who has tossed 11 touchdowns without turning the ball over to this point. Mestemaker leads a North Texas offense that is inside the top 20 in a variety of metrics, including success rate, along with sitting inside the top 10 in points per drive, EPA per rush and quality drive rate. South Florida’s defense is certainly improved, but this is still a unit that ranks outside the top 70 in success rate, while sitting at 63rd in quality drive rate and 3rd and 4th down success rate allowed. There’s lots to like about both teams in this game, but North Texas feels like the slightly stronger side for my money, particularly on offense. Let’s take the Mean Green as short home underdogs in this pivotal AAC clash. 

USF vs North Texas prediction: North Texas ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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