TCU Horned Frogs vs BYU Cougars Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/15/25

In what is arguably the most important game in the Big 12 on Saturday, this matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs and BYU Cougars is one could decide if the latter makes the conference title game in a few weeks. And while Sonny Dykes’ team let me down by surrendering a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter of a loss to Iowa State a week ago, this was still a box score that dramatically favored the Horned Frogs. After all, TCU outgained the Cyclones by nearly 200 yards and finished with nearly double the amount of first downs. If it wasn’t for 3 turnovers and allowing a punt return touchdown midway through the fourth quarter, the Horned Frogs likely win and cover the number at home a week ago. With that in mind, it’s not a shock that TCU’s metrics suggest that the Horned Frogs are better than their record, and I have no problem getting back on the horse with Josh Hoover and an offense that clearly looked to be much healthier following the bye week. This is still a top 20 unit in 3rd and 4th down success rate, quality drives created and points per drive, so points should be available to TCU on Saturday. 

Regardless of how the offense looks, Hoover shouldn’t have to score 40 points to cover this number, especially with the TCU defense grading out very well against the run (13th in EPA per rush, 26th in rushing success rate allowed) and with BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier currently in the midst of his worst run of form of the season following a terrible showing against Texas Tech. There’s no doubt that while BYU is certainly a good team — one that has outperformed preseason expectations by a significant margin — the Cougars are pretty fortunate to only have one loss at this point, as it’s gone through what has been a gauntlet of a Big 12 schedule thus far. You have to wonder if BYU is running out of gas a bit as the season winds down, and the Cougars are now down to 70th in passing success rate on offense, to go along with metrics outside the top 50 in a number of key areas, including points per drive. The TCU defense has been playing like a top 25 unit of late, so as long as Hoover plays mistake-free football, the Horned Frogs should keep this one close and even potentially win outright in Provo.  

TCU vs BYU prediction: TCU +6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.5

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