TCU Horned Frogs vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Monday, 09/01/25

After a long and eventful offseason, the 2025 college football season is finally here and with it comes a loaded Week 1 slate of games across many conferences. While Saturday and Sunday will bring us a number of blockbuster matchups between ranked teams, one particular game that the entire college football world will also be tuned in for is this Big 12 vs ACC showdown between the TCU Horned Frogs and North Carolina Tar Heels from Chapel Hill on Monday. Fans of the Big 12 understand that TCU are one of the chief contenders in what should be a wide-open conference, and the Horned Frogs should be a very entertaining team to watch all season long. However, the real reason most casual fans will tune in is that North Carolina will be one of the most talked-about teams in the sport this season, as former Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has already generated plenty of conversation in his first offseason as a college football head coach. But what will the results on the field look like? It’s almost time to find out.

It’s hard to be 100% definitive when talking about North Carolina, but I’m a bit skeptical of how the Heels will fare from a season-long perspective, and in this game against a solid opponent. Ultimately, I find myself showing some value on TCU in this spot given the potential for North Carolina to be significantly worse than its perception in the market, especially in a season-opener with so many moving pieces involved for a largely brand-new team. Much like Colorado in 2023 and a number of teams this season, the Tar Heels underwent a complete overhaul in the offseason and are now a completely different team than what they looked like a season ago. There is reason to believe that North Carolina upgraded in some areas on the roster — most notably at head coach — but the Tar Heels are still breaking in so many new pieces on both sides of the ball that it would be reasonable to expect some growing pains in the season opener, especially against a quality opponent.

As for the visitors, TCU brings back one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12 (and possibly the nation), as Josh Hoover returns for his second season under center in Kendall Briles’ offense. Unlike many quarterbacks across the country this season, there is a bit of continuity on the Horned Frogs’ offense. Hoover will have his top three offensive linemen back, along with a number of talented skill position players transferring in from other Power 4 schools to bolster a unit that should score plenty of points this season. It remains to be seen how North Carolina will look in Week 1, so I have to give an edge to TCU in that department as well. Ultimately, this is a game where handicapping a side is difficult because of the unknown with North Carolina, but I have far more confidence in the more proven commodity to this point, and that’s what we have with the Horned Frogs. Let’s back TCU to win and cover this relatively short number against a team that I need to see it first before I believe the hype.

TCU vs North Carolina prediction: TCU -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a scenario where the game script for each side will likely tell the story for both the side and total in Monday’s contest. If the Tar Heels are going to keep this one within one possession (or even win outright), then that likely means that North Carolina will have to limit this TCU rhythm offense through the air and turn this game into more of a grind-it-out affair with plenty of 3rd down situations. With that in mind, I’m definitely partial to the under in this game, and the data that we’ve seen from the early Week 1 results also supports a lower-scoring contest.

Even if the Horned Frogs end up winning this game (and covering the spread in the process), Belichick is one of the great defensive minds in the history of the sport for a reason, and he’s had all offseason to prepare for TCU’s veer and shoot offensive scheme. The longtime head coach should have at least some idea on how to slow it down a bit. On the other side, the Horned Frogs were a pretty decent defensive team in their own right a season ago, as TCU ranked inside the top 25 in pass defense and the top 40 in total defense. Both teams should play with a bit of tempo at the start, but we should settle into a bit of a slower pace as the game goes along, especially if either defense is able to impose their will on the proceedings. Given our projected game script for this matchup, we’re getting a bit of value on this number, so let’s take the under in Monday’s showdown.

TCU vs North Carolina pick: Under 57.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 56.

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