Tennessee Volunteers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/18/25

This Saturday, under the lights of Bryant-Denny Stadium, the Tennessee Volunteers and the Alabama Crimson Tide will meet for another installment of their rivalry series known as the “Third Saturday in October.” The Tide controlled this series for the better part of 2 decades, but the Vols have taken 2 of the last 3 – both in Knoxville by 1 score. In fact, Tennessee has not won in T-Town since 2003.

The Vols come into this contest with a 5-1 overall record, but they are just 2-3-1 ATS – failing to cover a spread since Week 2. While they have won 3 straight, the Vols have shown some vulnerability recently, needing overtime to win at Mississippi State and then letting Arkansas back into the game last week. Meanwhile, the Tide are also 5-1, covering the spread in 4 of those games. The Week 1 loss to Florida State feels like a distant memory at this point, as the Tide have rattled off 5 straight wins – including their last 3 over ranked teams in Missouri, Vanderbilt and Georgia.

If you want to beat Alabama, whether on the spread or outright, you’re going to have to stop the pass. Unfortunately for Tennessee fans, the Volunteers’ weakest defensive trait is their secondary, ranking 97th in PPA per pass and 108 in passing downs PPA over the last 5 weeks. Furthermore, Tennessee is 92nd in third-down conversion allowed and 115th in points per quality drive. Kalen DeBoer, Ryan Grubb and Ty Simpson are likely salivating over the schematic advantages they have on the offensive side of the ball, as the Tide are 6th in PPA per pass, 7th in passing downs PPA and 25th in points per quality drive over the last 5 weeks, while boasting a top-15 third-down conversion mark on the season as a whole. 

On top of defensive inefficiencies – which are certainly exacerbated by the injuries to Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson – Tennessee has been penalized more than most teams in the FBS, ranking 110th with 7.6 per game. That’s not an issue that will remedy itself under the lights in Tuscaloosa. In fact, the atmosphere is likely to make it twice as bad. Furthermore, turnovers were an issue in Tennessee’s only true road game to this point, as the Vols gave the ball away 3 times in Starkville a few weeks ago. Look for the Tide to feed off the home crowd, pick apart Tennessee’s secondary and force ample Volunteer mistakes in what should be a double-digit win at home in T-Town. 

Tennessee vs Alabama prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -9. 

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This game represents a clash in styles from a tempo standpoint. Tennessee operates at the 3rd-fastest pace in the country, running a play at an average of every 21.5 seconds. Meanwhile, Alabama is much more methodical and snaps the ball closer to every 29 seconds, which is good for 115th nationally (one of the 25 slowest teams in the country). 

The Tide’s methodical approach is key to predicting the total accurately. Tennessee and Alabama are certainly buoyed by their offenses, both of which are explosive and can light up scoreboards in a hurry. However, Alabama has shown an ability to eat the clock in bunches. The Tide opened the season with a drive that lasted nearly 9 minutes and resulted in a touchdown at Florida State, had 4 5+ minute drives at Georgia, held the ball more than 7 minutes twice against Vanderbilt and even had a 9-minute drive in the second half at Missouri after opening the game with a 6-minute drive. This ability to methodically drive down the field and possess the ball for long periods of time really makes it hard to count on enough points to push this game over the total. 

Despite this game being between 2 high-flying offenses, Alabama’s tempo is likely to suppress scoring in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, as is its top-20 red zone defense. This has the makings of a 34-21 type game, so I recommend looking toward the under at the current price.

Tennessee vs Alabama prediction: Under 58.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to 57.

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