Tennessee Volunteers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/27/25

The Tennessee Volunteers got right after their 44-41 loss to Georgia with a 56-24 win over UAB last week. Now, they hit the road for their first true road game of the season – a matchup with the undefeated Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs won in dramatic fashion over Arizona State in Week 2 and have taken care of business against inferior opponents since then, as they look ahead to their first conference game – anxious to prove their 4-0 start is no fluke.

Tennessee is undermanned defensively, playing without its top two corners and three of its five best interior linemen for most, if not all of the season. Those absences are evident when you assess the ‘Vols’ defensive metrics, as Tennessee is 82nd in standard down PPA allowed and 72nd in PPA per pass allowed. Moreover, the ‘Vols are 127th in points per scoring opportunity allowed, yielding close to an average of 5 points per opposing trip across the 40-yard line. That doesn’t bode well for the road favorites, as Mississippi State is top 20 in PPA per play, points per scoring opportunity, and passing downs PPA. 

The Volunteers may get a couple of their injured defenders back this week, but with a bye on deck before a home date with Arkansas, I’m not confident we will see all five players return. It sounds like Jermod McCoy, Tennessee’s best defender, will be out at least until the bye week as he continues to rehab a January injury – as could Jaxson Moi.

On the other side of the field, Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar faces off with a Mississippi State defense that is top 35 in PPA per pass, passing success rate, and havoc generated by defensive backs. Don’t be surprised to see Aguilar flash the turnover-prove traits he demonstrated at Appalachian State last year and against Georgia two weeks ago. In unfamiliar territory, bombarded by cowbells, look for Tennessee to struggle under pressure. Mississippi State is live here; grab the points before a potential move across a key number of 7.

Tennessee vs Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs +8.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +7 (-115).

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