Texas A&M Aggies vs LSU Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/25/25

One of the 5 remaining undefeated teams in college football, the Texas A&M Aggies will head to one of the sport’s most difficult places to play in LSU’s Death Valley this weekend to play the Tigers. It will be Texas A&M’s second consecutive road game after barely out-lasting the Razorbacks in Arkansas last week, as the Aggies were outgained in that contest and surrendered 8.4 yards per carry. LSU, on the other hand, returns home after its 2nd 1-score loss in 3 games. The Tigers were unable to stymie Vanderbilt’s offense in last week’s 31-24 defeat, which certainly is a concern against the high-powered Texas A&M offense.

You could argue LSU has played just 2 offenses with a pulse – Ole Miss and Vanderbilt – and the Tigers lost both of those games. The silver lining is that both of those games were on the road, but LSU hasn’t exactly played well against SEC opponents at home. Both the Florida and South Carolina games ended with a score of 20-10 in favor of LSU, though the Tigers could have lost one, if not both of those games if it weren’t for the offensive incompetencies of the Gators and the Gamecocks. 

If one thing is for certain, Texas A&M is extremely competent offensively. The Aggies have had one questionable performance from a scoring perspective, a 16-10 home win over Auburn. However, the score doesn’t quite depict Texas A&M’s domination due to a couple of missed field goals and a turnover near the red zone. The Aggies still outgained Auburn 414-177 in that contest, while averaging 4.4 yards per carry and 9.4 yards per pass. In every other game, the Aggies have scored at least 31 points. They are 14th in yards per play this season, and over the last 5 weeks, they are 21st in PPA per play and 1st in havoc allowed outside of garbage time. They are particularly good on standard downs, which gives them third-and-managable situations quite often – a down on which the Tigers defense has been good, but not great in recent weeks. 

Having failed to surpass 24 points against any FBS opponent, I struggle to trust LSU’s offense enough to cover as a home underdog, much less win outright. I realize how difficult of an atmosphere Death Valley is to play in, but Texas A&M’s offense never skipped a beat under the lights at Notre Dame earlier this year – which is a good notch to have under its belt ahead of this contest with LSU. Look for the Aggies to continue their undefeated quest this week.

Texas A&M vs LSU predictions: Texas A&M Aggies -2.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The Aggies may not hang 40 points on the board this week, but they should still be trusted to score. LSU’s defense has been touted as one of the better stop-units in the country, and from a points and yardage perspective, it is. However, the Tigers have shown some weaknesses over the last 5 weeks on a play-to-play basis, ranking 80th in PPA per pass and 103rd in passing downs PPA. They have even been questionable against the run of late, surrendering 166 rushing yards to Ole Miss, 193 to South Carolina and 239 to Vanderbilt last week. With a talented group of running backs playing next to a mobile, athletic quarterback in Marcel Reed that can stretch the defense down field, the Aggies should be able to find chunk plays on the ground. After all, the Texas A&M offensive line is 13th in stuff rate allowed and 44th in line yards outside of garbage time since Week 4.

While LSU has only surpassed 24 points once this season (against an FCS opponent), the Tigers should score enough to help push this game over the low total. For as good as Texas A&M is offensively, its defense can be exposed at times. The Aggies are 130th in points allowed per quality drive outside of garbage time since Week 4, and have surrendered a fair share of explosive runs – which should help an LSU offense that has struggled to find success on standard downs recently.

If this total was in the mid-50s, I would certainly look toward an under. However, this number is just a little too low given how good Texas A&M is offensively and how inconsistent it can be defensively. Look toward the over at the current price.

Texas A&M vs LSU prediction: Over 47.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 48.5.

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