Texas Longhorns vs Florida Gators Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/04/25

Following a week off, the Texas Longhorns hit the road for the first time since their Week 1 loss at Ohio State, but this time it will be to Gainesville for their SEC opener against the Florida Gators – who also enter this contest after a much-needed bye. Oddly enough, Texas and Florida have completely opposite results this season, as the Longhorns started with a loss before rattling off 3 consecutive wins, while the Gators won their first game and lost the next 3. In fact, the Gators averaged just 11 points per game in their 3 losses to USF, LSU and Miami, and it won’t get much easier for them this week.

Texas’ defense has been lights-out this season, boasting top-10 marks in most of the advanced defensive metrics I evaluate week in and week out. Among them, the Longhorns sit atop the country in yards per play allowed against FBS opponents, rank 2nd in PPA per play allowed, and sit 7th in opposing third-down conversion rate. Furthermore, they hold opponents to fewer than 2.6 points per quality drive outside of garbage time (13th nationally) and generate havoc at a top-25 rate. That spells disaster for a Florida team that is 114th in PPA per play, 120th in turnover margin, 125th in yards per play and 129th in third-down conversions. Florida quarterback DJ Lagway has thrown 6 interceptions with 7 turnover-worthy plays, and his average depth of target is bottom 10 nationally. Simply put, he’s been a hindrance on this offense rather than helpful, and I don’t expect that to change even if he’s playing at home in the Swamp on Saturday. 

On the other side of the field, Arch Manning hasn’t lived up to the hype, as the Longhorns are 91st in passing downs PPA and 119th in PPA per pass. However, they’ve taken great care of the ball, as shown by a top-30 turnover margin and top-20 havoc allowed, which should help them sustain multiple quality drives against this Florida defense. With an extra week to prepare, I trust Steve Sarkisian to set his Longhorns up for enough success offensively to cover this number at the Swamp given the edge the ‘Horns have defensively against Lagway and the Gators. Lean to Texas in this one.

Texas vs Florida prediction: Texas Longhorns -6.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7 (-115).

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When the Gators visited Austin last year, the Longhorns controlled the game from the start. In fact, they jumped out to a 42-0 lead before ultimately winning the game 49-17. Despite the offensive outburst in that contest, which closed with a total of 49.5, the total for this year’s matchup in Gainesville sits as low as 41.5 or 42 depending on the book. It makes sense. Neither of these offenses play with tremendous pace, nor have they been very inspiring against quality defenses. 

Texas currently sits 88th nationally in seconds per play, while Florida is outside the top 110. Furthermore, neither offense has had much success finishing its quality drives with touchdowns, and it doesn’t get much better the closer they get to the end zone, either, as they are both outside the top 40 in red-zone touchdown rate. This should be a low-scoring game, not only because of the expected slow pace of play and offensive inefficiency, but because both of these defensive units are the strength of their respective teams. Plug your nose and take the under. 

Texas vs Florida prediction: Under 42 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.

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