Texas Longhorns vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/25/25

It’s not the biggest game on the slate by any means, but one of the more consequential contests in the SEC takes place in Starkville, Mississippi on Saturday between the Texas Longhorns and Mississippi State Bulldogs. A week ago, I was all over the Bulldogs to keep things within one score against the Florida Gators on the road, and Mississippi State was within the number for all 60 minutes and could’ve even won the game outright if not for a late interception in Florida territory in the final minutes. It just so happens that I’m going back to the well with the Bulldogs at home against a Texas team that is absolutely reeling at the moment. 

After looking like it had finally figured some things out on offense in recent weeks, Texas is coming off an extremely fortunate victory over Kentucky last week that is sure to send Steve Sarkisian and company back to the drawing board. Texas gained just 179 yards against the Wildcats and registered only 3.3 yards per play, while the Longhorns surrendered 395 yards and allowed nearly 40 minutes of time of possession. Mississippi State is certainly a better team than Kentucky and the Bulldogs will be at home, where they’ve excelled at this season, already beating Arizona State as an underdog of a touchdown and nearly upsetting Tennessee as a 7.5-point home ‘dog. Road starts have not been kind to Texas quarterback Arch Manning this season, as the Longhorns signal caller has just one touchdown pass over his first two outings away from home. This won’t be an easy matchup against a Bulldogs defense that has surprisingly been a top 40 unit against the pass to this point, and ranks 27th in points per drive allowed per CFB-Graphs. 

As for the other side of the ball, the Mississippi State offense should be able to keep the Bulldogs in this game, even against a Texas defense that is a top 10 unit in the sport. The Bulldogs offense is a veteran group that sits at tops in the nation in rushing success rate, while sitting at 22nd nationally in success rate. The Texas defense is one that has the ability to slow down any team, but it remains to see if the Longhorns will take the early lead, or will Jeff Lebby’s group be the one to bring the energy and punch Texas in the mouth early on. The market continues to overrate this Texas team, especially since the Longhorns have shown us next to nothing to deserve their power rating to this point. With that in mind, let’s take the ‘dog with the points.

Texas vs Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State +7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +7

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