Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 08/30/25

One of the biggest Week 1 matchups in recent memory, the top-rated Texas Longhorns start the Arch Manning era with a true road game in Columbus against the reigning champion Ohio State Buckeyes. Not only is this a top 3 matchup to kick off the season, but it’s a rematch from last year’s national semifinal, which was tied 14-14 going into the 4th quarter before Quinshon Judkins punched in a touchdown from the 1-yard line and Jack Sawyer recovered a sack-fumble for an 83-yard touchdown to seal the deal. 

Despite the recent history between these 2 teams, Saturday’s matchup is going to look very different than it did in January. Ohio State and Texas will have new quarterbacks and offensive lines, while multiple wide receivers and key defenders on both teams graduated to the NFL. Not only that, but the Buckeyes will have a new-look backfield after Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson also left for the pros after each accumulating at least 1,200 total yards with 27 combined touchdowns. But wait, there’s more! Ohio State will also have 2 new coordinators, as OC Chip Kelly went back to the NFL, while DC Jim Knowles made a curious lateral move to Penn State. 

The expectations are through the roof for both of these programs, yet neither team ranks inside the top 80 in returning production. There are so many question marks on both of these teams, which is something we’re not used to seeing from 2 of the top 3 teams going into the season. Having said that, we have to assess what we know. The first thing we know is that Texas has a massive coordinator advantage given the departure of Kelly and Knowles and the continuity of OC Kyle Flood and DC Pete Kwiatkowski in Austin. That’s not to say Brian Hartline and Matt Patricia are bad coaches, but the consensus is that OSU downgraded significantly at both of the coordinator positions in the offseason. 

What else we know is that Texas brings back more production from its top-3 defense than Ohio State does from its top-3 defense. In fact, the Longhorns return more than 60% of its defensive production from last season, headlined by sophomore phenom Colin Simmons, arguably the best linebacker core in the country, and a stud safety in Michael Taaffe. Speaking of stud safeties, Caleb Downs returns for the Buckeyes and is widely considered the best defender in college football. However, there isn’t much else surrounding him from last season’s championship defense. That’s not to say there isn’t elite talent in this group, but with a new coordinator leading the way, I question if this unit will be able to pick up right where the Buckeyes left off last year. Replacing the production of guys like Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Cody Simon, and Lathan Ransom won’t be easy, especially right off the bat in Week 1 against a team as good as Texas.

Ohio State will benefit from playing this game at home, and Sayin will benefit from throwing to the best player on the field in Jeremiah Smith. However, I’m not convinced the home-field advantage and Smith’s ball-hawking prowess will overcome all of the other questions surrounding the 2025 edition of Ohio State football. I give Texas the coaching edge in this game, and believe the Longhorns have a defensive advantage and the better offensive backfield given the return of Tre Wisner and CJ Baxter, so I will take the points with the ‘Horns in this massive SEC-Big Ten showdown at the Horseshoe in Columbus.

Texas vs Ohio State prediction: Texas Longhorns +2.5 (-110) available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.

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This total opened around 50.5 in the summer and has dropped below a key number of 48 in some spots. It makes sense, as there are so many questions surrounding both of these teams. The Longhorns and the Buckeyes will trot out new starting quarterbacks on Saturday, both playing behind completely reshuffled offensive lines and throwing to wide receiver rooms that lost multiple pieces to the NFL. On the other side of the ball, Texas benefits from more continuity than Ohio State, but both teams lost multiple key producers after mutually finishing in the top 3 in scoring and total defense in 2024.

Given how good the defenses were last year, in addition to the inexperience of the quarterbacks and offensive lines, the line dip to 47.5 makes sense. However, you’re too late if you want to bet Under. This number has moved into a range that now feels too low given the amount of talent that will still be on the field on Saturday, so I slightly lean to the Over. Look for Texas to find success offensively against an Ohio State defense replacing all-program type players in the front 7, and look for the Buckeyes to pour in some points once Julian Sayin gets acclimated to the speed of the game. 

Texas vs Ohio State prediction: Over 47.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 48.

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