Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Utah Utes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/20/25

Arguably the most important game of the day across the college football landscape comes in Salt Lake City, where the Utah Utes will host the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a battle for supremacy at the top of the Big 12. Texas Tech was the talk of the offseason in this conference due to the influx of money into the program, and the Red Raiders certainly look like one of the top contenders in the league thus far. Behren Morton is back for another season at quarterback, and he’s certainly looked sharp to this point, as he’s led an offense that has put up well over 150 points in 3 games while ranking inside the top 10 in success rate and Early Downs EPA (CFB-Graphs). The defense has been rock solid too (top 10 in success rate and Early Downs EPA), albeit with some occasional chunk plays allowed. Joey McGuire has to be pleased with where his team stands to this point and the national media has certainly taken notice. With that said, it’s hard to gauge just how ready this team is for a big time spot like this, particularly when 2 of their first 3 games came as 50+ point favorites against the likes of Arkansas Pine Bluff and Kent State.

At this point, we know what we’re getting from Morgan Scalley and the Utah defense, and it looks like the Utes are headed for another season where their defense is a top 20 unit in the sport. However, I’d argue that it’s actually the offense that is the flagship unit of this team and gives Klye Whittingham’s group a much higher ceiling than what some may think. Utah’s offense was one that I was higher on than the market coming into the season, and the results have been even better than what I expected to this point. In fact, what’s been most impressive about the Utes has been their red zone efficiency, with 15 of their 16 red zone possessions resulting in touchdowns this season. Utah’s offensive line might be the best unit in the nation and it’s certainly shown thus far, as Whittingham’s team is averaging 6 yards per rush while converting on 72% of its 3rd downs. Devon Dampier is emerging on a national level as one of the better quarterbacks in the sport, and his play to this point speaks for itself (73% completion, 8 touchdowns to zero interceptions, 66 rush yards per game). Texas Tech’s defensive front is one that has plenty of high-level talent, but the Red Raiders could be in for a rude awakening against Dampier and an offensive line that is projected to have 2 players taken in the first round of next year’s NFL Draft.

While they haven’t played a murderer’s row of opponents to this point, at least the Utes have played a pair of road games, with one of them coming in a difficult environment. Texas Tech hasn’t had to leave Lubbock and the Red Raiders have beaten up on vastly inferior competition through the first 3 weeks. It goes without saying that this will be a monumental step up in class for this group, one that I don’t think will bode well for the Red Raiders in one of the toughest places to play in college football. This is my favorite bet on the board this weekend, especially now that we’ve seen this number dip under a field goal at a couple of outlets. I’ll gladly lay the short number with the Utes in a massive spot at Rice-Eccles.

Texas Tech vs Utah prediction: Utah -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 3. 

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This number has come down a bit since the open, but I think we still have a bit of room to run in this Big 12 matchup. As previously mentioned, this game is set for FOX’s Big Noon time slot, meaning that it will kick off at just after 10 a.m. local time. With that in mind, both of these teams could get off to similarly slow starts in what is easily the biggest game of the season for both sides. Often in games of this magnitude, we see the defenses rule the game early on and that can be expected here, especially since both units rank inside the top 20 in success rate allowed and early downs success rate. It’s also reasonable to expect that both offenses could struggle a bit in the early going given the step-up in class compared to their first trio of games, especially in the case of Texas Tech. I would slightly prefer the first half under in this contest, but given how that line has moved dramatically as well, I’ll back the full game under on Saturday in Salt Lake City.

Under 58.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 57.5