Tulane Green Wave vs Memphis Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/07/25

A massive game in the AAC headline’s Friday night’s action when the Tulane Green Wave travel to Memphis to play the Tigers. Tulane enters this contest fresh off an ugly loss at UTSA in which the Green Wave turned the ball over 4 times, including 2 Jake Retzlaff interceptions, a Brendan Sullivan interception, and a fumble lost by RB Javin Gordon. The loss firmly removes Tulane from the College Football Playoff picture if it wasn’t already, but the Green Wave are still 3-1 in the AAC with a real chance to play for a conference championship with a win in Memphis on Friday night. 

Speaking of the CFP, Memphis sits at 8-1 with a renewed chance to be the postseason Group of 5 representative thanks to its comeback win over USF a couple weeks ago. The Tigers followed that performance up by taking care of business at Rice last week, easily covering the 14-point spread while holding the Owls to 212 total yards. QB Brendon Lewis left the game late to a lower-body injury, and his status is technically in question for this game. Though, we heard that leading up to the USF game, in which he ended up playing. Considering he practiced on Monday, expect Lewis to be a full-go here again.

Interestingly enough, Tulane is taking some money as I write this on Tuesday evening, which is a move I disagree with. First, this will be the 2nd game of a back-to-back road trip for Tulane, and playing on the road hasn’t been all that kind to the Green Wave this year despite coach Jon Sumrall’s prior success against the number as a visitor. For reference, Tulane is just 1-3 ATS on the road this year. Conversely, Memphis has been a money machine this year, currently 8-1 SU and ATS including home wins over the aforementioned Bulls and the Arkansas Razorbacks of the SEC. In fact, the Tigers have been impossible to beat at home since the start of last year. 

Obviously playing at home is advantageous, but playing clean football is also advantageous – and that’s exactly what Memphis has done of late. The Tigers have just 1 turnover in their last 3 games, bolstering their top-10 turnover margin. They’ve also been relatively clean from a penalty perspective, sitting top-50 in penalties per game. Meanwhile, the Green Wave are 116th in penalties per game, and though Retzlaff has thrown just 3 picks this year, he has 8 turnover-worthy plays in his last 4 games – and it finally caught up to him last week when he was benched in the blowout loss to UTSA. Given the fact that Memphis is top-30 in havoc generated by defensive backs over the last 5 weeks, Retzlaff could be in for another turnover-filled day. 

Perhaps the biggest advantage for Memphis in this game is in the red zone. The Tigers reach the red zone at a top-20 rate and boast the 3rd-best scoring percentage in the country, which includes both touchdowns and field goals. When you cut that down to just touchdowns, the Tigers are #1, finding the end zone on 82% of their red zone trips. Tulane, on the other hand, has found pay dirt on just 50% of red zone trips. Defensively, it’s much of the same. The Tigers surrender points on 75% of opposing red zone trips, while the Green Wave yield points on over 86% of those possessions. 

Expecting Lewis to play, I make Memphis over a touchdown favorite at home against Tulane. Look for the Tigers to excel in red zone situations, play clean football, and make use of their more efficient and explosive rushing attack in a win and cover at home. For what it’s worth, if the opportunity presented itself, the Tigers would probably want to run the score up to make their CFP resume look better; just something to consider. 

Tulane vs Memphis prediction: Memphis Tigers -4.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7. 

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