Tulane Green Wave vs UTSA Roadrunners Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 10/30/25

Following a mutual bye week, the Tulane Green Wave will hit the road for an American Athletic Conference showdown with the UTSA Roadrunners. The Green Wave have lived up to the hype thus far, boasting a 6-1 overall record with its lone blemish being at Ole Miss. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners are 3-4 overall, and their wins came against FCS Incarnate Word, 2-win Colorado State, and Rice. 

Coming into the year, I had much higher hopes for the Roadrunners – specifically on offense with QB Owen McCown. However, they’ve disappointed for much of the year, sitting outside the top 100 in turnover margin, penalties per game and third-down conversion rate against FBS opponents on the season as a whole. UTSA has surpassed 21 points just once in its last 4 outings, which is a stark difference from last season’s offensive explosion. 

The Roadrunners’ recent struggles may be linked to their inability to protect the ball. UTSA has committed multiple turnovers in 3 of its 4 recent games and ranks 132 in havoc allowed outside of garbage time over the last 5 weeks. That’s going to make things a lot more difficult when hosting a rested Tulane squad led by Jon Sumrall. 

The Green Wave are top-25 in havoc generated since the end of September and currently sit top-35 in takeaways per game against FBS opponents. Needless to say, they’re going to be a stiff test for McCown and company, which wouldn’t be comforting if I was a UTSA fan given McCown’s 6 turnover-worthy plays in his last 4 games. That’s not to say Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff has been much better in that department, because he hasn’t (6 turnover-worthy plays in the last 3 games). However, Tulane’s 2 most recent opponents were East Carolina and Army, which are the other top-3 defenses in the AAC along with Tulane. I can at least somewhat justify turnover-worthy plays against good defenses, not against the likes of Colorado State, Temple and North Texas. 

Speaking of good defenses, Tulane has one. In fact, the Green Wave lead the AAC in scoring defense, having surrendered just 50 combined points across 3 conference games. They currently sit top-15 nationally in points allowed per quality drive since Week 5, and they are best against the pass – ranking top 20 in both passing downs PPA and PPA per pass in that same span of time. From a college quarterback perspective, this is a very interesting matchup, but it’s Tulane’s defense that separates the Green Wave from the Roadrunners in this one. Lay the points with Sumrall and the Wave on the road, a spot that Sumrall has excelled in as a college head coach.

Tulane vs UTSA prediction: Tulane Green Wave -3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable -4 (-110).

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