USC Trojans vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/27/25

FOX’s Big Noon kickoff is headed to the Big Ten on Saturday to showcase a matchup between the red-hot USC Trojans and an Illinois team that is coming off a humiliating defeat at the hands of Indiana a week ago. I was all over the Hoosiers in that contest, and that turned out to be my easiest winner of the season to date, as Curt Cignetti’s team hung 63 points on the Illini in what was a 53-point victory and a statement on a national stage. Now, Illinois heads back home for a game that could alter the course of its season against a USC team that has yet to play a quality opponent on the road in 2025.

I’m a bettor that firmly believes that no team is as good or as bad as their most recent performance. With that in mind, while I was on the front lines of fading Illinois this season, there comes a point where you have to hold your nose and back the Illini in a great spot at home. There are certainly concerns I have with this matchup, most notably how the Illinois defense will handle the USC passing attack (1st in passing success rate, 2nd in EPA per pass, 3rd in Early Downs EPA). However, the Illini should be noticeably healthier in the secondary than what we saw against Indiana last week, and USC star wideout Ja’Kobi Lane will likely miss this contest with what Trojans coach Lincoln Riley described as an “inconclusive” injury. This should at least somewhat slow down the Trojans high-flying offense, especially since USC struggled a bit in its only Big Ten road game, an unconvincing 16-point victory over Purdue in Week 3.

As for the other side of the ball, Illinois is a team that was certainly overperforming its metrics on offense, with the chief concern for the Illini coming on the ground. However, my issues with their very poor offensive line don’t quite concern me as much against a USC defensive front that hasn’t generated much pressure against any offense with a pulse to this point. While the Trojans are certainly improved on that side of the ball under D’Anton Lynn, this is still a group that surrendered over 350 yards to Michigan State and Purdue in recent weeks. With that in mind, as long as Luke Altmyer doesn’t turn the ball over multiple times in this one, I expect a spirited effort from an offense that was embarrassed a week ago and will have certainly had a very difficult week of practice. Ultimately, this number is now getting to the point where it’s clearly inflated, and the only way I can look is on the wounded underdog. I’ll back Bret Bielema’s bunch to keep things close at home.

USC vs Illinois prediction: Illinois +7 available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5

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Regardless of what team walks out of this game on top, this is a game that should be played in the low to mid 60s. As mentioned previously, I have real concerns with how the Illinois defense will handle Lincoln Riley’s offense (1st in passing success rate, 2nd in EPA per pass, 3rd in Early Downs EPA). As we’ve seen already this season, USC’s offense is one that should be able to get to at least 30 points, even in a potentially losing effort. On the other side of the ball, the Trojans defense has undoubtedly improved, but I’m not yet sold on a unit that has still struggled to slow down opposing rushing attacks, as we saw with Michigan State a week ago. Let’s look for a game where both teams score at least 27 points.

Over 59.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 60.