USC Trojans vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/01/25

It’s a game that is flying under the radar given the brands involved in this game, but Saturday’s matchup between USC and Nebraska is a de-facto College Football Playoff elimination game for both teams. The Trojans certainly have the much stronger resume to this point and they certainly look like the better side between these teams. However, there is something to be said for the fact that Lincoln Riley and this coaching staff have struggled mightily over the last two seasons when leaving the West Coast.

Earlier this season, we saw USC lose to Illinois as a road favorite of nearly a touchdown in Champaign, and that’s been par for the course with recent history. In fact, the Trojans have yet to cover the spread as a road favorite in the eastern or central time zone since joining the Big Ten. That certainly raises some alarm bells in my head when breaking down this matchup, especially since this is a night game in one of the best home environments in the nation. Furthermore, the clear advantages that USC should have in this game on the ground could be negated a bit by the fact that the Trojans will be without their top 2 running backs in this game, along with their left tackle. The Trojans passing offense is one of the best in the nation (5th in passing success rate, 4th in EPA per pass), but the Nebraska secondary is actually the strength of its defense, with the Cornhuskers sitting inside the top 20 in passing success rate allowed and EPA per pass (CFB-Graphs). We can fully expect USC to score in this game, but that might not be enough to win by margin.

While I have no real questions about the USC offense, the Trojans defense is another story. Defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has done a very solid job with revamping this unit, but USC is still a team that can be had in the trenches, with the Trojans sitting at 117th in rushing success rate allowed and 85th in Early Downs EPA. That should be music to the ears of the Nebraska offense, with the Cornhuskers sitting inside the top 20 in rushing success rate and 24th in quality drives created. Nebraska has struggled against tougher competition this season, but the USC defense has allowed plenty of possible scoring drives (76th in quality drives allowed), so there should be opportunities for Dylan Raiola and company to cash in on scoring opportunities. It’s not my favorite bet on the board, but I have to take the full touchdown with the home ‘dog.

USC vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska +7 available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5

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While my projections on this game call for a total of around 57.5, this is a game where I do not want to be on the under given the potency of both offenses, and the questions I have with both defenses. As previously mentioned, the USC offense has been one of the best units in the nation to this point in the season, with the Trojans sitting inside the top 5 in passing success rate allowed, EPA per play and points per drive. It’s hard to argue with the results, especially when USC has been able to score on some rock solid defenses (Michigan and Notre Dame) in recent weeks. Therefore, while the Nebraska secondary is certainly solid, the Cornhuskers haven’t had to face a passing attack like this, and the Trojans should stretch and challenge this blackshirts defense. On the other side, Nebraska’s offense is operating at a top 20-25 level and it’s not as if USC’s defense has been a brick wall in Big Ten play. The Cornhuskers should be able to crack at least 27 points in a game that feels like it could come down to the final few possessions.

Over 58.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 59