UTSA Roadrunners vs Texas A&M Aggies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 08/30/25

Mike Eklo’s 2nd season in College Station kicks off under the lights at Kyle Field on Saturday night when the Aggies of Texas A&M host the UTSA Roadrunners in a non-conference, in-state showdown. UTSA is expected to be one of the best offenses at the G5 level this year with quarterback Owen McCown back in the fold, leading an offense with the 2nd-most returning production in the country – including its top rusher, top receiver by yards, and top receiver by touchdowns. Having an experienced offense should help UTSA on the road tremendously throughout the year, but I’m not sure it’s going to help overcome the mismatch on the other side of the ball between its defense and Texas A&M’s offense. UTSA has fewer than 50% of its defense back from a season ago, and the departed production wasn’t replaced with anything near the level of what Texas A&M will be trotting out onto the field on Saturday night. In fact, the roster talent discrepancy is massive in this matchup. Per 247 Sports, Texas A&M is the 8th-most talented roster in the country with 5 5-stars and 56 4-stars, while UTSA is 65th with just 1 5-star and 10 4-stars.

On top of the talent discrepancy, Texas A&M is loaded with returning production on both sides of the ball. The Aggies were outside the top 45 in scoring last year, but there are reasons to believe the unit will improve this year. With Connor Weigman’s transfer to Houston, Marcel Reed is now the full-time starter and provides nearly a full season worth of playing experience. Reed is a dynamic athlete that leaves a bit to be desired as a passer, but Elko improved his pass-catching group by bringing in wide receivers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver. Furthermore, Reed will benefit from playing behind an offensive line that returns all 5 starters from last year and lining up in the backfield with a deep running back group loaded with experience. Simply, I don’t see how UTSA’s defense is going to hold the Aggies down. 

It is merely a 3-hour trip for the Roadrunners to get to College Station, but they are likely to feel a long way from home on Saturday, in one of the liveliest environments in college football – under the lights at Kyle Field. Just look at their recent games against power conference opponents. In 2023, UTSA lost 45-14 at Tennessee, and that Roadrunner team ended up finishing 7-1 in the AAC – falling just short of a conference title appearance due to a loss at Tulane in the last week of the season. Last year, UTSA lost 56-7 at Texas while catching 35.5 points. Expect much of the same this year. If the Roadrunners cannot sustain any offensive momentum, which is possible against a Texas A&M defense returning north of 70% of its production from a unit that was top 40 in scoring last year, their defense is likely to be left out to dry against what figures to be a potent Texas A&M offense. I’m laying the points here. 

UTSA vs Texas A&M prediction: Texas A&M Aggies -23.5 (-115) available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -25. 

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UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor and offensive coordinator Justin Burke love to operate with pace. In each of the last 3 seasons, the Roadrunners have been in the top 25 in both plays per game and seconds per play. Last year, they were as high as 2nd in plays per game and 14th in seconds per play. With the 2nd-most returning offensive production this year, expect the Roadrunners to once again operate at one of the fastest paces in the country. 

I love the Over in this matchup due to UTSA’s pace, but it’s not only in the sense that you would think. If UTSA plays quickly and efficiently, in theory, it leads to points for the Roadrunners – which clearly helps an Over in a game with a spread this big. Conversely, if UTSA operates quickly and inefficiently, it’s just going to give Texas A&M’s offense more opportunities to score against an inferior and gassed defense – much like when UTSA played at Texas last year. For reference, the Roadrunners converted just 2 of 17 3rd downs in that game, and while they had the ball for 2 more minutes than the Longhorns, they were out-gained by around 350 yards and repeatedly gave up explosive plays – often for long touchdowns.

Any points from UTSA help when betting the Over in a game like this, but Texas A&M also has the upside to cash this Over by itself. Look for the Aggies to take advantage of an inferior UTSA defense that lacks much experience at this level. For what it’s worth, UTSA games with a total of 55 or higher were 6-1 to the Over last year, while Texas A&M games under those same parameters were 3-0 to the Over. 

UTSA vs Texas A&M prediction: Over 56.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 58. 

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