Vanderbilt Commodores vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 10/04/25

The Vanderbilt Commodores are in uncharted territory, as this is just the second time in 80 years that they have started with a perfect 5-0 record. They will look for their 6th consecutive win in Tuscaloosa against the Crimson Tide this weekend with ESPN’s College GameDay on hand for the afternoon, but it won’t be easy – as the Tide are by far the most talented team Vanderbilt will have faced to this point.

Alabama comes into this contest off a massive, season-saving win in Athens – something no team had done since 2019. The Tide outgained the Bulldogs 397-357, possessed the ball for 11 more minutes, and converted 13 of 19 third downs in the victory. Now, they return home to T-Town to exact revenge on a Vanderbilt team they lost to last year as 3-touchdown favorites in Nashville – preventing them from making the College Football Playoff. 

This number opened around 14 points and was quickly bet down, which makes sense considering Vanderbilt is the darling of college football right now. At the current number, I still lean that way, but I don’t have much conviction behind that lean because I don’t see the ‘Dores winning in Tuscaloosa. My projection has Alabama as a 10.1-point favorite, so I show slight value on the current number of 10.5, and would even look to back Alabama at -9.5 or better if it were to get there later in the week. 

Vanderbilt vs Alabama prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores +10.5 (-108) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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While I am not confident in either side against the spread, I am confident in points being scored between Vanderbilt and Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Saturday afternoon. Vanderbilt enters this contest with top-3 marks in almost every offensive metric I evaluate every week aside from seconds per play – in which they rank 131st. The slow pace is alarming when considering a bet on the over, but the Commodores make up for it with their explosivity. For reference, they are 34th nationally in overall explosiveness per play and 16th in plays of at least 20 yards. 

Averaging 5.7 points per trip across the opposing 40-yard line, the ‘Dores have shown enough offensively to trust that they can find the end zone at least 3 or 4 times against an Alabama defense that is 76th in PPA per play and 122nd in points per quality drive allowed. The Tide have also struggled defensively on passing downs outside of garbage time, which is exactly where Vandy’s offense thrives – ranking 1st nationally in passing downs PPA.

As for Alabama, the Tide have come alive offensively after a poor showing in Tallahassee in Week 1. Coming into this matchup, they are top 30 in third-down conversions, yards per play, PPA per play, and points per quality drive. While the Tide struggle a bit on the ground, they excel through the air, ranking 8th in PPA per pass, 17th in passing downs PPA and 29th in pass explosiveness – which should lead to plenty of points against a Vandy defense whose weakness lies in the secondary. Look for Ty Simpson to continue his hot run against this defense, routinely leading the Tide into scoring range and capping those quality drives off with touchdowns more often than not. Points galore in T-Town on Saturday afternoon.

Vanderbilt vs Alabama prediction: Over 55.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 56.5.

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