Vanderbilt Commodores vs South Carolina Gamecocks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 09/13/25

Boasting 2-0 records with mutual wins over Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt and South Carolina open conference play against one another this week. Vanderbilt has certainly passed the eye test offensively more than South Carolina to this point, yet the Gamecocks are giving 5 points in what figures to be an electric atmosphere under the lights at Williams Brice Stadium on Saturday. South Carolina has controlled this series of late, churning out 16 straight victories over Vanderbilt dating back to 2009. Going one step further, the Gamecocks have covered this number in 12 of the 16 wins, including last year’s 28-7 victory – in which they held the Commodores to 7 points and 274 yards. 

Vandy has revenge on its mind, as admitted by Diego Pavia in a Barstool interview when he was asked which game he has circled on this year’s schedule. However, I still give the edge to the Gamecocks in this matchup for a few reasons, starting with the quarterback position. While I acknowledge Pavia is a gamer, he’s not in the same tier as LaNorris Sellers. Everything Pavia can do on the field, Sellers can do better. Second, South Carolina is not only better defensively than Vandy, but better than any opponent Vandy has seen to this point. Dylan Stewart will likely draw plenty of attention from Vanderbilt’s offensive line, which should allow Bryan Thomas Jr. to continue thriving opposite of him. Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy and Fred Johnson have stepped up against the run, and the experience-laden secondary has been very strong in coverage – albeit against bad offenses. 

Finally, this is a tough spot for Vanderbilt situationally. I realize the revenge angle, but this will be the second consecutive true road game under the lights for the Commodores. Not many visiting teams fare well at night in Williams Brice Stadium. In fact, the Gamecocks are 12-4 ATS at home in games that kick off at 6:00pm ET or later under Shane Beamer. Three of those losses against the spread were as underdogs, and the other was last week as a 42.5-point favorite against SC State – a game in which the Gamecocks were admittedly flat and likely looking ahead. Don’t expect another uninspiring performance from South Carolina here. Gamecocks win and cover. 

Vanderbilt vs South Carolina prediction: South Carolina Gamecocks -5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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