Vanderbilt Commodores vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/01/25

The Vanderbilt Commodores continued their fairytale season with a win at Missouri last week 17-10, though they were outgained by the Tigers and converted just 3 of 10 third downs. Now 7-1, the ‘Dores will hit the road for the first time in nearly a month to take on the Texas Longhorns in a revenge spot after Vanderbilt nearly upset Texas as 17-point underdogs in Nashville last year. It will be the 4th ranked game in a row for Vandy, a program not used to playing meaningful game after meaningful game in recent memory.

On the other sideline, Texas miraculously kept its season alive last week with a 17-point, second-half comeback victory at Mississippi State – a game that was won in overtime. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, QB Arch Manning is in concussion protocol for a hit he sustained in that game. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said he practiced on Wednesday, but it was a light practice given that he has yet to be fully cleared. It’s not impossible for a QB to clear concussion protocol in under a week, as South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers did it earlier this year after sustaining a concussion in his game against this very Vanderbilt team. 

Also practicing Wednesday was Texas S Michael Taafe, who missed the Mississippi State game but has practiced twice this week already. I’d expect him to be back at the very least, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of these guys play given Texas’ season is on the line every week from here on out. 

I’ve been on Vandy the last couple of weeks, and I’ve tried to look for reasons to jump off them this week but I just can’t find much reason to. Obviously, Arch Manning playing would be huge for the Texas offense, but let’s not pretend like the ‘Horns have been world-beaters this season. They barely beat Kentucky and Mississippi State on the road, lost at Florida, and only put up 27 points on UTEP at home. Moreover, they are just 70th in yards per play season and 125th in points scored per quality drive over the last 5 weeks. 

If the run game looked stronger in recent weeks, I would be more inclined to back Texas here, but even that aspect of this offense has been off. The Longhorns put up just 72 total rush yards and 2.3 yards per carry against Mississippi State on the heels of just 47 rush yards and 1.7 yards per carry at Kentucky, and they’re sitting 105th in PPA per rush and 125th on standard downs PPA over the last 5 weeks. That’s not going to cut it against this Vandy team, who will milk time of possession with a strong run game of its own. I’ll consider it a lean at the current number until we know more about Manning, though I expect him to play and would think the line will move past 3 and even potentially 3.5 with that official news later in the week. Hold off for now, but keep Vanderbilt on your list.

Vanderbilt vs Texas prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores +2.5 (+100) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Vanderbilt games were extremely high-scoring in non-conference play, but every conference game has gone under the total except for the LSU game. In fact, the ‘Dores failed to reach 20 points in 2 of their last 3. It makes sense given the step up in class against SEC defenses, but the Commodores also play at a methodical pace – ranking 131st in seconds per play against FBS opponents this season. 

Texas, on the other hand, has been nowhere near as efficient as Vanderbilt offensively (it’s still very weird to see that written, but I digress). In fact, the Longhorns have been bad on the ground in the games leading into this one, as in, outside the top 100 bad. When they manage to get the ball into scoring range recently, they haven’t consistently been able to punch it into the endzone – averaging just 2.6 points per trip over the opposing 40-yard line. 

Given the methodical pace of Vanderbilt’s offense and the inefficient performance of Texas’, as well as the significance of this game for the postseason race, I envision this being an old-school low-scoring SEC battle. Oddsmakers seem to agree given the low total. Under or pass here.

Vanderbilt vs Texas prediction: Under 45.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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