Vanderbilt Commodores vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/01/25

The Vanderbilt Commodores continued their fairytale season with a win at Missouri last week 17-10, though they were outgained by the Tigers and converted just 3 of 10 third downs. Now 7-1, the ‘Dores will hit the road for the first time in nearly a month to take on the Texas Longhorns in a revenge spot after Vanderbilt nearly upset Texas as 17-point underdogs in Nashville last year. It will be the 4th ranked game in a row for Vandy, a program not used to playing meaningful game after meaningful game in recent memory.

On the other sideline, Texas miraculously kept its season alive last week with a 17-point, second-half comeback victory at Mississippi State – a game that was won in overtime. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, QB Arch Manning is in concussion protocol for a hit he sustained in that game. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said he practiced on Wednesday, but it was a light practice given that he has yet to be fully cleared. It’s not impossible for a QB to clear concussion protocol in under a week, as South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers did it earlier this year after sustaining a concussion in his game against this very Vanderbilt team. 

Also practicing Wednesday was Texas S Michael Taafe, who missed the Mississippi State game but has practiced twice this week already. I’d expect him to be back at the very least, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of these guys play given Texas’ season is on the line every week from here on out. 

I’ve been on Vandy the last couple of weeks, and I’ve tried to look for reasons to jump off them this week but I just can’t find much reason to. Obviously, Arch Manning playing would be huge for the Texas offense, but let’s not pretend like the ‘Horns have been world-beaters this season. They barely beat Kentucky and Mississippi State on the road, lost at Florida, and only put up 27 points on UTEP at home. Moreover, they are just 70th in yards per play season and 125th in points scored per quality drive over the last 5 weeks. 

If the run game looked stronger in recent weeks, I would be more inclined to back Texas here, but even that aspect of this offense has been off. The Longhorns put up just 72 total rush yards and 2.3 yards per carry against Mississippi State on the heels of just 47 rush yards and 1.7 yards per carry at Kentucky, and they’re sitting 105th in PPA per rush and 125th on standard downs PPA over the last 5 weeks. That’s not going to cut it against this Vandy team, who will milk time of possession with a strong run game of its own.

Manning update: As of Friday night, Manning will play. +3 is now in play for Vanderbilt and is my lean for this one.

Vanderbilt vs Texas prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores +3 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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