Virginia Cavaliers vs California Golden Bears Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 11/01/25

We’ve got a fascinating ACC matchup on our hands between a couple of very different teams, as the Virginia Cavaliers will take on the California Golden Bears from Berkeley. On paper, this has all the makings of a tough spot for a Virginia team that has not exactly been convincing in its recent victories, while Cal has the chance to get back on track following a loss in double overtime at Virginia Tech.

Few teams across the country this college football season have run as well as Virginia. While this has undoubtedly been a very impressive campaign for Tony Elliot’s team, the Cavaliers should have some significant regression coming before this regular season is over. Yes, Virginia is 7-1 on the year and currently sits near the top of the ACC standings, but the last few weeks have yielded some pretty misleading results for the Cavaliers. For starters, Virginia knocked off Florida State in overtime in a game that could’ve gone either way back on September 26. The Cavaliers then took down Louisville the next week in overtime, a game in which Virginia was +3 in the turnover battle. Fast forward to October 18 and the Cavaliers defeated Washington State at home by 2 points on a safety late in the 4th quarter (while also finishing +2 in turnovers). Most recently, Virginia was once again +2 in turnovers in a 1-point victory in overtime against North Carolina a week ago, despite the fact that the Cavaliers were outgained by nearly 100 yards and averaged just 3.8 yards per play against a poor Tar Heels defense.

It’s safe to say that Virginia can’t keep this up for much longer, and a trip out west is a great time to fade this team that’s been dancing through the raindrops for weeks. The matchup against California is one that could presents some challenges for the Virginia offense, as the Bears are a top 40 defense in success rate allowed, points per quality drive, early downs EPA and 3rd and 4th down success rate. On the other side of the ball, true freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been up-and-down of late, but he is more than capable of seeing plenty of success against a Virginia defense that 95th in early downs EPA allowed and 109th in points per quality drive allowed. This has all the makings of a contest that should come down to the wire on the West Coast, and it’s only natural that my inclination is to back the underdog in this spot.

Virginia vs Cal prediction: Cal +4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +4

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