Virginia Cavaliers vs Missouri Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 12/27/25

As part of a loaded Saturday college football slate, the 10-3 Virginia Cavaliers will meet the 8-4 Missouri Tigers in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. The Cavaliers come into this game on the heels of a disappointing 27-20 overtime loss to Duke in the ACC Championship, which cost them a seat at the metaphorical College Football Playoff table. Meanwhile, the Tigers ended the season with 4 losses in their last 7 outings, though 3 of those losses were to CFP teams and the 4th was to a near-playoff team in Vanderbilt. 

As with every non-playoff bowl game, player availability is the first thing to assess. At the time of writing on Christmas Eve morning, Virginia should be close to full strength. That is, assuming players like RB J’Mari Taylor, QB Chandler Morris, and S Devin Neal all play. As far as injuries go, the Cavaliers will be without LB Kam Robinson – one of their best tacklers – and potentially leading-WR Trell Harris (847 yards, 5 TD), who was hurt in the ACC Championship. On the other sideline, Missouri will be without starting QB Beau Pribula, WR Marquis Johnson and WR Josh Manning, all of whom hit the transfer portal. Injury wise, starting TE Brett Norfleet and stud LB Josiah Trotter are out. 

Missouri’s passing attack will be limited without Pribula, Johnson, and Manning, but backup QB Matt Zollers started 3 games during the regular season. The freshman signal caller is still green, but with playing experience against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Mississippi State, plus a few weeks to prepare for this opponent, he should be ready to go. Missouri’s offense is centered around the run anyway, and that is where the Tigers should have the advantage in this matchup.

Virginia rates very well defensively, but I question the strength of its opponents. Simply put, the Cavaliers have not faced a runner like Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy. The future-pro accumulated over 1,500 rushing yards this year with 16 touchdowns, and over 1,100 of those yards came after contact. Without Robinson on the field, Virginia may have a difficult time stopping Missouri’s run game, even if Hardy doesn’t receive a full workload – as the Tiger backfield is deep with capable rushers.

I have a similar opinion as it pertains to Virginia’s offense against Missouri’s defense. The Cavaliers did not face many stop-units near the strength of the Tigers at any point this season. In fact, the 3 best defenses Virginia faced from a PPA/play perspective were Louisville, Washington State, and Wake Forest, and the Cavaliers averaged 12 points less in those 3 games than they did over the course of the whole season – and that’s before acknowledging UVA had 2 defensive touchdowns and 6 overtime points against Louisville. With a top-20, front-7 havoc rate since Week 9, Missouri’s defensive front is going to get after Morris in the backfield. 

Considering the step up in class for Virginia, as well as the potential let down after losing the ACC Championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff, it’s Missouri or pass as far as the spread is concerned for me in the Gator Bowl.

Virginia vs Missouri prediction: Missouri Tigers -3.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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