I favor the Pittsburgh Pirates to win their matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday, September 22. Pittsburgh will host the Cardinals for this series as the divisional rivals approach the end of their seasons. Neither team will factor into postseason play, but both teams took small steps forward in their rebuilds during the 2026 campaign.
Jared Jones is the scheduled starter for Pittsburgh in this matchup. Jones enters this game in great form, allowing just 3 earned runs with 26 strikeouts across his first 18 innings this month. Jones has a 4.17 ERA through 90.2 innings this season, but that ERA lowers to a 3.45 xERA. His 88th percentile strikeout rate is a healthy mark thanks to a 94th percentile whiff rate. Jones has 109 strikeouts and has shown improved command of the zone as well recently. While not a perfect pitcher, Jones has shown encouraging signs and appears to be healthy for this Pirates rotation.
Neither the Cardinals nor the Pirates are in good offensive form against right-handed pitching, both sitting within the bottom 3rd in wOBA and wRC+ within the last 30 days of play. Pittsburgh has slightly outpaced the Cardinals offensively in that sample, however. The Pirates will face Andre Pallante, who is not at his best entering this start. Pallante has had a very solid season, posting a 3.70 ERA through 151 innings of work. His 10th percentile K% and 28th percentile xBA lower his xERA to 4.04, but he is still one of the better pitching options in St. Louis. Still, he allowed 8 total runs in his last start, with 6 earned against his record, and I lean towards the Pirates at home in this spot.
Cardinals vs Pirates prediction: Pirates ML (-148) available at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds.
